The Community Prevention Grants Program is grounded in more than three decades of research that documents the correlation between conduct problems in early childhood and the development and onset of delinquency, including serious and violent offending.³ This chapter presents data that underscore the importance of preventing delinquency and discusses the research on risk and protective factors that is the basis of Title V delinquency prevention planning and programming. The final section of the chapter highlights current knowledge about “what works” in delinquency prevention.

The Importance of Delinquency Prevention

Research indicates that young people are committing fewer crimes and using drugs and alcohol less frequently. Total arrests of youth younger than age 18 declined 20 percent from 1997 to 2001 (Snyder, 2003).⁴ During the same period, juvenile arrests for property crimes (such as burglary and arson) decreased 29 percent, juvenile arrests for violent crimes (such as murder and rape) decreased 21 percent, and juvenile arrests for murder declined 47 percent (Snyder, 2003). A national survey reports that illicit drug use among 8th, 10th, and 12th graders declined between 1997 and 2002 (Johnston, O’Malley, and Bachman, 2002). The decline was almost 5 percent among 8th graders, almost 3 percent among 10th graders, and slightly more than 1 percent among 12th graders. The same study shows that between 1997 and 2002, self-reported alcohol use declined by 6.8 percent among 8th graders, 5.1 percent among 10th graders, and 3.3 percent among 12th graders.

Nevertheless, there were 2.3 million arrests of youth younger than age 18 in 2001, constituting 17 percent of all arrests in the United States that year (Snyder, 2003). Juvenile delinquency is still a major public safety issue, and one whose monetary costs are considerable (Menard, 2002; Snyder and Sickmund, 1999). Beyond the obvious expenses of investigating delinquent and criminal acts and processing and punishing the offenders, the costs of delinquency extend to:

• Health services such as emergency medical treatment for both victims and offenders, long-term expenses related to traumatic injuries, mental health services to address victims’ emotional trauma, and drug treatment for offenders.

• Victims’ lost wages, property losses, and ongoing expenses to reduce the risk of further victimization (e.g., home alarm systems).

• Jury awards to compensate victims for pain and suffering (excluding punitive damages).

• Productivity losses resulting from confinement (offenders) and long-term physical injury (victims and offenders).

The victim-related costs associated with a single chronic juvenile offender have been estimated at $62,000 to $250,000 over a 4-year period. The criminal justice system costs for the same chronic juvenile offender added an estimated $21,000 to $84,000 over the course of 4 years. A single juvenile substance abuser was estimated to cost society between $150,000 and $360,000, and a single high school dropout, $243,000 to $388,000 (Snyder and Sickmund, 1999).

A growing body of evidence demonstrates that delinquency prevention programs are effective in reducing the number of youth who engage in juvenile crime and other problem behaviors (see “Research-Based Prevention Programs,”). Prevention has also been shown to be cost effective. In its recent report on youth violence, the U.S. Office of the Surgeon General (2001) cites research demonstrating that model early childhood intervention programs can actually save the government up to three times their cost when delinquency prevention and other benefits are considered and that model community-based programs targeted to adolescents return $11 to $22 for each dollar spent.⁵

The Role of Risk and Protective Factors

Effective delinquency prevention planning begins with an understanding of risk and protective factors. These are, respectively, the conditions, attitudes, and behaviors that can predispose children to later involvement in delinquency and those that can buffer negative influences and help build resilience in youth (Loeber, Farrington, and Petechuk, 2003; Wasserman et al., 2003; Hill, Lui, and Hawkins, 2001; Hawkins et al., 2000; Wasserman, Miller, and Cothern, 2000; Lipsey and Derzon, 1998; Kelley et al., 1997; Tolan and Guerra, 1994). The risk- and protection-focused approach to prevention is the cornerstone of the Title V Community Prevention Grants Program. Since 1994, it has helped guide the efforts of communities nationwide to reduce delinquency and other related youth problem behaviors.

The effects of risk factors are multiplicative and interactive. The probability that youth will engage in delinquent behavior increases with the number of risk factors to which they are exposed (Herrenkohl et al., 2000; Farrington, 1997; Thornberry, Huizinga, and Loeber, 1995). Youth exposed to five or more risk factors are more likely, at least in the short term, to be involved in delinquent behavior than are youth with fewer than five risk factors.

Protective factors mitigate the effects of risk factors. Some children who are exposed to significant risk factors but also have the benefit of protective factors can move into adolescence and early adulthood without engaging in delinquent behavior. When protective factors are absent or limited, children exposed to risk factors are more likely to experience emotional, psychological, and behavioral challenges that can lead to delinquent behavior, although predicting the specific problems that may emerge (e.g., substance abuse, mental health issues, teen pregnancy) is difficult. This is true even for youth who may have resisted negative behavior in the past (Global Youth Network of the United National Office on Drugs and Crime, n.d.). The next two sections describe in greater detail risk and protective factors and their role in delinquency.

Risk Factors

Two of the leading researchers in the field, Hawkins and Catalano, observed that “In order to prevent a problem, we must find out what factors increase the chance of that problem’s occurrence and then find ways to reduce these ‘risk factors’” (1992, p. 8). Risk factors have been identified in five domains: community, school, family, peer group, and individual. Examples of factors in each domain include
the following (Brewer et al., 1995, citing numerous studies):

• Community: Availability of firearms, disorganized neighborhoods with high rates of crime and violence, and impoverished neighborhoods.

• School: Lack of commitment to school and early academic failure.

• Family: Family conflict and family management problems, such as parents failing to set clear expectations for children or failing to supervise children properly.

• Peer group: Association with peers who engage in delinquent behavior.

• Individual: Alienation and rebelliousness among youth who do not feel they are part of society or bound by its rules.

Because the development of juvenile problem behaviors can be influenced by risk factors across several domains, interventions directed at preventing one problem can often help address another problem. Although not every child exposed to a risk factor will eventually commit delinquent acts, risk factors are powerful aids to identifying populations with a high potential for becoming delinquent or violent (U.S. Office of the Surgeon General, 2001).

The effect of risk factors can vary according to an individual’s developmental stage (Herrenkohl et al., 2001; U.S. Office of the Surgeon General, 2001; Hawkins et al., 2000). Factors that represent risk at one developmental stage are not necessarily risks at a different stage. For example, delinquent behavior and youth violence have different trajectories (e.g., early emergence versus late onset) (U.S. Office of the Surgeon General, 2001; Chung et al., 2002). Youth who exhibit violent behavior in early or middle adolescence may not have been violent as children. The developmental stage at which delinquent behaviors first emerge has important implications for future behavior. Research suggests that youth who exhibit violent behavior in childhood are more likely to become serious, chronic offenders than are youth who begin to behave violently at a later stage (U.S. Office of the Surgeon General, 2001).

Evidence also exists of a relationship between risk factors and racial groups, although the relationship is not clear. The National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health found that while some risk factors are more prevalent among certain demographic groups (such as minority males), demographic characteristics in and of themselves are not useful predictors of adolescents’ future behavior (Blum, Beuhring, and Rinehart, 2000). The study also showed that risk factors for delinquency and violence varied within demographic groups. For example, frequent parental drinking was a risk factor for future alcohol use for white and black females but not for Hispanic females or for males of any race. Clearly, the relationship between risk factors and race needs further exploration, especially for its implications in program planning. If risk factors vary among racial groups, then appropriate research-based strategies must be identified for each group.

Additional evidence suggests that risk factors affect girls and boys differently. For example, interpersonal relationships play an important role in girls’ delinquent behavior. While homicides that boys commit usually occur in conjunction with another crime, homicides that girls commit typically involve a relational conflict, such as an argument or physical fight. Moreover, the victims of homicides that girls commit tend to be members of the girls’ own families. These differences underscore the fact that risk factors are not the same for everyone, including different subgroups, and that knowing which risk factors exist for specific groups in a community is important to developing successful delinquency prevention programs (Blum, Beuhring, and Rinehart, 2000).

Protective Factors

Protective factors help explain why some children who are exposed to risk factors display problem behaviors, while others who are exposed to similar situations do not. Protective factors are usually associated with prosocial relationships and healthy bonding with parents, peers, school, or the community. According to Hawkins and Catalano, “When people feel bonded to society, or to a social unit like the family or school, they want to live according to its standards and norms” (1992, p. 15).

Protective factors can be quite powerful in their ability to offset risk factors. Thornberry and colleagues (1995) found that certain protective factors can affect even youth at the highest risk for delinquency (defined as those having five or more family-based risk factors). These protective factors include doing well in school, intending to continue one’s education, being highly attached to one’s parents, and associating with prosocial peers. Although each protective factor alone had little effect, the researchers found that 82 percent of high-risk youth who had nine or more protective factors did not engage in serious delinquent behavior (Thornberry, Huizinga, and Loeber, 1995).

Two predominant theories exist regarding protective factors. The first theory views protective factors as the opposite of risk factors. For example, while a lack of commitment to school is a risk factor, a strong commitment to school is a protective factor. Similarly, having friends who engage in delinquent behavior is a risk factor, and having friends who engage in prosocial activities is a protective factor.

The second theory considers protective factors to be “characteristics or conditions that interact with risk factors to reduce their influence on violent behavior” (Garmezy, 1985, as cited in U.S. Office of the Surgeon General, 2001, chap. 4, p. 8; Rutter, 1985; Stattin and Magnusson, 1996). For example, a child’s supportive relationship with a parent is a protective factor. Although this relationship cannot directly alter an existing risk factor such as poverty, it may help the child overcome some of the negative influences associated with exposure to risk. This theory is more widely accepted in the field, is supported by more empirical evidence than the former theory, and has been proven repeatedly in explorations of delinquent behavior. It underlies the Title V Community Prevention Grants Program model as well as other prevention models, including those designed to reduce substance use and teen pregnancy.

What Works in Prevention

The body of research on risk and protective factors is complemented by research that evaluates the effectiveness of delinquency prevention programs in reducing risk factors and increasing protective factors. The community initiatives most likely to succeed in preventing delinquency are those that draw on both bodies of research, namely, those that first identify the primary risk factors affecting the community and then selectively target these with a proven program model matched to the community’s needs. Accordingly, OJJDP requires its Title V subgrantees to choose research-based strategies when developing their prevention initiatives. Success also is enhanced when communities consider at the outset the sustainability of their program. These factors are explored in detail in the following sections.

Research-Based Prevention Programs

OJJDP and other federal agencies have sponsored research examining the effectiveness of delinquency prevention programs. These studies have rigorously evaluated numerous programs to determine their outcomes for specific populations and settings. This information is readily available in print and online. Following are some prominent examples:

• Blueprints for Violence Prevention: OJJDP is a sponsor of the Blueprints initiative, which reviews programs to determine their effectiveness in reducing adolescent violent crime, aggression, delinquency, and substance abuse. To date, the initiative has evaluated more than 600 prevention and intervention programs against a strict research-based standard of effectiveness and identified 11 as model programs and an additional 21 as promising programs. Exhibit 1 lists four examples of Blueprints model programs. Information about the evaluation criteria and each of the model and promising programs is available on the Blueprints Web site, www.colorado.edu/cspv/blueprints/index.html.

• Strengthening America’s Families: Effective Family Programs for Prevention of Delinquency: Sponsored by OJJDP and the Center for Substance Abuse Prevention (CSAP), this project examines prevention strategies on 14 dimensions. Based on the ratings they receive, strategies are defined as “exemplary” (well-defined programs that have shown consistent positive findings across rigorous evaluations), “model” (programs that have consistent integrity ratings), or “promising” (programs that have mixed integrity ratings but demonstrate high integrity ratings in at least three or four categories). Program ratings are available on the project’s Web site, www.strengtheningfamilies.org.

• Promising and Effective Programs (PEP) Guide: The PEP Guide, an element of OJJDP’s Title V training program, provides information about effective prevention programs to help Title V communities select research-based prevention strategies (a requirement for subgrantees). The PEP Guide is discussed in greater detail below .

• Youth Violence: A Report of the Surgeon General: Published in 2001, this report includes both a list of model and promising delinquency prevention programs and a list of programs shown not to work. The report defines model programs as those that have been evaluated using a rigorous experimental design, shown evidence of significant deterrent effects, and proven successful when replicated at multiple sites or in clinical trials. The complete report, as well as instructions for ordering a printed copy, can be accessed online at www.surgeongeneral.gov/library/youthviolence.

• Exemplary and Promising Safe, Disciplined, and Drug-Free Schools Programs 2001: Published by the U.S. Department of Education, this compendium provides descriptions of 42 programs, 9 of which are designated as exemplary and 33 as promising. The complete report, as well as instructions for ordering a printed copy, can be accessed online at www.ed.gov/admins/lead/safety/exemplary01/index.html.

• Preventing Drug Use Among Children and Adolescents: A Research-Based Guide for Parents, Educators, and Community Leaders, Second Edition: This report, published by the National Institute on Drug Abuse, presents information on risk factors for drug abuse, discusses community planning for drug abuse prevention, and gives examples of research-based drug abuse prevention programs. The complete report, also known as the Redbook, is available online at www.drugabuse.gov/pdf/prevention/RedBook.pdf.

• Preventing Crime: What Works, What Doesn’t, What’s Promising: This National Institute of Justice report to Congress presents the results of a rigorous analysis of more than 500 crime prevention programs. The researchers found a number of successful and promising program models, including home visitation programs targeted at low-income parents, preschool projects for at-risk children, mentoring efforts aimed at youth from single-parent homes, and instructional programs for a variety of at-risk youth. The complete report is available online at www.ncjrs.org/docfiles/wholedoc.doc. For an abbreviated summary of the report’s findings (Sherman et al., 1998), see www.ojp.usdoj.gov/nij/pubs-sum/171676.htm.

• SAMHSA Model Programs: This online compendium (modelprograms.samhsa.gov) is sponsored by CSAP, Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA). The programs have been tested in communities, schools, social services organizations, and workplaces across the country and proven effective in preventing or reducing substance abuse and other related high-risk behaviors.

Each of the resources listed above uses its own assessment criteria—sound research design, theoretical base, evidence of a prevention or deterrent effect, integrity, and ability to be replicated—to determine whether programs should be considered effective, model, or promising. Although definitions vary according to source, effective programs typically have demonstrated strong and consistent results and promising programs have shown some positive outcomes.

In addition to promoting the use of research-based strategies, these resources promote the importance of evaluation. Much of the literature on the implementation of research-based strategies includes recommendations on how to evaluate their effectiveness. Evaluation not only demonstrates program effectiveness but also illustrates the context in which that success was demonstrated (i.e., the target population, settings, and how the program was implemented). Evaluation findings can help communities appropriately plan, implement, and monitor their programs by providing information about which programs are most likely to work for them, how to implement the program to get the expected results, and what aspects of the program to monitor to ensure program quality. This process saves both time and money and helps prevent the frustration that can result from investing energy in a program that ultimately does not work. Evaluation also may offer policymakers information about the outcomes, including cost benefit, they should expect from various programs, which, in turn, can guide their funding decisions. Finally, positive evaluation results lend credibility that can contribute to program sustainability.

Targeting and Matching

The Title V model embraces the principle of selective targeting, which requires grantees to identify the most prevalent risk factors in the community or the target population. This task is generally accomplished by conducting a comprehensive needs assessment to identify the full range of risk and protective factors present in the community and then prioritizing the most prevalent risk factors. Once a community has identified its high-priority risk factors, it can match its program strategy to these specific needs. For example, if community representatives identify and prioritize family management problems, then they must implement a strategy with demonstrated effectiveness in reducing such problems. If the identified risk factor and the chosen strategy are mismatched, the community is not likely to succeed in reducing the targeted risk factor. Targeting research-based strategies to specific risk factors increases the likelihood that communities will achieve their prevention goals.

Prevention strategies also should be tailored to the target population being served, so that risk factors are addressed at the appropriate developmental stage. For example, afterschool tutoring programs may be successful with older youth but may be too advanced for primary and preschool children, for whom in-school learning works best. Similarly, because peer relationships are important during adolescence, prevention strategies for adolescents may be more successful if they target peer inter- actions in addition to family issues (Wasserman, Miller, and Cothern, 2000).

Finally, it is important to recognize that the ability of any prevention strategy to reduce certain risk factors is limited, especially with regard to program scope and resources (Lipsey and Derzon, 1998). For example, extreme economic deprivation may be a priority risk factor in a community, but the ability to affect it may be beyond the scope and resources of the community and its chosen prevention strategy.

Sustainability

Research suggests that longevity and stability are also critical to program success (U.S. Department of Education, 1998). The programs commonly rated as effective or as models are those that are long-term and comprehensive. With regard to youth violence, for example, beneficial effects can diminish quickly after youth leave a treatment setting to return to their home environment. Therefore, long-term, stable programs are needed (U.S. Office of the Surgeon General, 2001). Sustainability is also crucial in the context of family strengthening approaches because short-term interventions with high-risk or in-crisis families do not result in the kind of functional changes within the family that allow for long-term solutions (Kumpfer, 1999).

OJJDP reinforces the importance of sustainability in the training and technical assistance it provides as part of the Title V Program. Given limited federal resources and short grant timelines, communities must address sustainability if they expect to meet their prevention objectives and maintain their initiatives beyond the initial funding period. Institutionalization of a prevention effort typically reflects community commitment and local control. Through institutionalization of sustainable and evidence-based prevention initiatives, communities can realize long-term goals such as building healthy opportunities for youth, reducing risk factors, and preventing problem behaviors. Such efforts also can reduce both the financial and human costs associated with crime.⁶

³ An annotated bibliography of research relevant to Title V with links to the publications listed is available on the Title V Web site: ojjdp.ncjrs.org/titlev/pub.html. See also the Publications section of OJJDP’s Web site: www.ojp.usdoj.gov/ojjdp.

⁴ Note that the number of arrests is not equivalent to the number of people arrested because an unknown number of individuals are arrested more than once in a year. Similarly, arrest statistics do not represent counts of crimes committed by arrested individuals because a series of crimes committed by one individual may culminate in a single arrest or a single crime may result in the arrest of more than one person. The latter situation is relatively common in delinquency cases because juveniles are more likely than adults to commit crimes in groups. (See Snyder,
2003.)

⁵ Model programs meet the following criteria: demonstration of significant deterrent effects on violence or serious delinquency, or on a major risk factor for violence, in a study with a rigorous experimental design (experimental or quasi-experimental); replication with demonstrated effects; and sustainability of effects.

⁶ The Winter/Spring 2002 issue of the Title V newsletter focused on sustainability. This newsletter is available online at www.dsgonline.com/Documents/26523_CommPrevNews.pdf.