Juvenile arrest rate trends for the four offenses that make up the Property Crime Index show very different patterns over the 1980–2004 period, bringing the utility of the Index into question
Burglary
Unique in the set of Property Crime Index offenses, the juvenile
arrest rate for burglary declined almost consistently and
fell substantially between 1980 and 2004. In 2004, the juvenile
arrest rate for burglary was less than one-third of what it was
in 1980, down 70%.
This large fall in juvenile arrests between 1980 and 2004 was
not replicated in the adult statistics. Between 1995 and 2004,
the number of juvenile burglary arrests fell 39%, while adult
burglary arrests dropped just 10%. In the prior 10-year period,
the juvenile and adult patterns were the same; between 1986
and 1995, both juvenile and adult arrests for burglary fell 18%.
Larceny-Theft
The juvenile arrest rate for larceny-theft remained essentially
constant between 1980 and 1997, then fell 39% in the relatively
brief period between 1997 and 2004.
In 2004, 72% of all juvenile arrests for Property Crime Index
offenses were for larceny-theft. Therefore, the trend in juvenile
arrests for Property Crime Index offenses largely reflects the
pattern of larceny-theft arrests (which itself is dominated by
shoplifting—the most common larceny-theft violation). As can
be seen on this page, the juvenile arrest trends for individual
property crimes vary considerably and, therefore, should be
thought about separately.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The juvenile arrest rate for motor vehicle theft more than doubled
between 1983 and 1990, up 137%.
After the peak years of 1990 and 1991, the juvenile arrest rate
for motor vehicle theft declined substantially and consistently
through 2004, falling 66%. The rate was lower in 2004 than in
any other year in the 1980–2004 period.
This large decline in juvenile arrests was not replicated in the
adult statistics. For example, between 1995 and 2004, the number
of juvenile arrests for motor vehicle theft fell more than
50%, while adult arrests remained constant.
Arson
After being relatively stable for most of the 1980s, the juvenile
arrest rate for arson grew 20% between 1990 and 1994.
The juvenile arrest rate for arson declined substantially between
1994 and 2004, falling 36% over the period, to its lowest
point (with the exception of 1983) in the 1980–2004 period.
Data source: Analysis of arrest data from the FBI and population data from the U.S. Bureau of the Census and the National Center for Health Statistics. [See data source note for detail.]