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Before the 1995 National Youth Gang Survey was conducted, the highest estimates of gang activity ranged from 8,600 to 9,000 gangs and 375,000 to 400,000 gang members (Curry, Ball, and Decker, 1996a, 1996b, 1996c; Klein, 1995). As noted above, however, most previous surveys were limited in size and scope. The 1995 National Youth Gang Survey indicated that there were approximately 23,000 youth gangs and 665,000 gang members active in the United States in 1995. The 1996 National Youth Gang Survey indicated that there were approximately 31,000 youth gangs and 846,000 gang members in 1996.
Results of the 1997 survey revealed that there were an estimated 30,533 youth gangs and 815,896 gang members active in the United States in 1997. Table 10 shows the reported and extrapolated number of youth gangs and gang members in 1997, by area type, and table 11 shows the percent change of the estimated 1996 and 1997 figures. Overall, there was a 0.9-percent decrease in the estimated number of youth gangs and a 3.6-percent decrease in the estimated number of gang members. More specifically, the estimated number of youth gangs decreased in suburban counties (23.2 percent) and rural counties (4.1 percent). Decreases in the estimated number of youth gang members were evident in suburban counties (6.1 percent) and large cities (5.7 percent).
Further examination of the increases in youth gangs and gang members revealed two primary causes for the changes. First, despite reductions from 1996 to 1997 in the estimated number of jurisdictions with active youth gangs, the average number of youth gangs and gang members increased in the lowest population groups (see table 12). Second, the percentage of agencies reporting an estimate of the number of youth gangs and gang members increased from 1996 to 1997, producing a slightly higher estimate of the number of gangs and gang members in 1997. Because the survey methodology is designed to produce the most conservative estimates, respondents who answer "do not know" to these questions are excluded from the extrapolations. As a result, any increase or decrease in the number of respondents who answer "do not know" to survey questions that ask for a raw number may lead to a slight change in estimates. To mitigate this effect, it may be necessary to modify the methodology for future surveys.
Table 12 illustrates the average number of youth gangs and gang members per jurisdiction for 1996 and 1997, by population size. For cities and counties with populations of 1-9,999, there was considerable growth (percentage-wise) between the relatively low numbers of gangs and gang members reported in 1996, and the low numbers, compared with other population ranges, reported in 1997. Most of the other population ranges showed decreases.
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