What evidence do crime statistics offer for superpredators?

The most common crimes juveniles commit are property offenses. If there were a change in the nature of juvenile offending in the last decade, it should generate changes in juvenile property crime arrests. The juvenile arrest rate for Property Crime Index offenses, however, changed little in the 1980's and 1990's.

There is evidence that juvenile violence did increase for a few years in the early 1990's. The National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) found that after years of stability the rate of juvenile serious violence did increase in the early 1990's—breaking out of its historic range to a level well above that of past generations. The NCVS data also show, however, that by 1995, the rate had returned to its traditional level. Rather than providing evidence for development of a juvenile superpredator, the NCVS data indicate that, despite a temporary increase, the rate of serious juvenile offending as of the mid-1990's was comparable to that of a generation ago.

The large increase in juvenile violent crime arrest rates reported by law enforcement agencies between 1988 and 1994 is the data most commonly cited as evidence for a new breed of violent superpredator. The increase in the juvenile violent crime arrest rate was much greater than the increase in serious juvenile offending documented by the NCVS. NCVS data indicate that serious juvenile offending returned to traditional levels by 1995, but the juvenile violent crime arrest rate did not follow this pattern. Even after a large decline that began in 1994, the juvenile violent crime arrest rate in 1997 was still far above levels of the early and middle 1980's.

1999 National Report Series, Juvenile Justice Bulletin: Juvenile Justice: A Century of Change	February 2000