To understand disparities between NCVS data and arrest data, it is necessary to analyze arrest rate trends for all age groups, not just for juveniles. Age-based patterns for Violent Crime Index arrest rates are similar in 1980 and 1997. In both years, the rates reach their peak in the late teens and early twenties and decline consistently and substantially through the older age groups. For all age groups, however, the 1997 rate is higher than the 1980 rate.

The data show that, in the 1990's, the Nation experienced an overall increase in violent crime arrest rates among all age groups, not just juveniles. It is hard to use the superpredator argument to explain this broad-based increase in violent crime arrests. The age group with the greatest increase in violent crime arrest rates is persons in their thirties and forties. No one has argued that there is a new breed of middle-aged superpredator, but the data provide more support for that conclusion than for the concept of a juvenile superpredator.

To explore further the disparities between NCVS data and arrest data, it is necessary to analyze age-specific arrest rate trends for the individual offenses that comprise the Violent Crime Index. Most arrests for violent crimes are for robberies and aggravated assaults. The arrest rates for these two offenses have different trends.

In contrast to robberies, aggravated assault arrest rates increased substantially between 1980 and 1997 for all age groups. Aggravated assault arrests clearly are the driving force for the overall increase in violent crime arrest rates.

The 1997 robbery arrest rates are lower than the 1980 rates in nearly all age groups. Therefore, robberies are not responsible for the overall increase in violent crime arrest rates during 1980-1997.

Some have speculated that the increase in aggravated assault rates was due to law enforcement reclassification of simple assaults as aggravated assaults. This does not appear to be the case, because simple assault rates also increased substantially during 1980-1997 for all age groups.

As with the increase in the overall violent crime arrest rate, the increase for aggravated assault was found in all age groups and was, in fact, highest among persons in their thirties and forties. Again, the juvenile superpredator theory is not the most straightforward explanation for the pattern of increase.

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1999 National Report Series, Juvenile Justice Bulletin: Juvenile Justice: A Century of Change	February 2000