The large growth in juvenile arrests for murder between 1987 and 1993 was not due to changes in police response. There was an actual increase in homicides by juveniles. This increase, however, can be explained by factors other than the advent of juvenile superpredators.

Nearly all of the increase in the juvenile arrest rate for murder that occurred between 1987 and 1993 was erased by 1997. In fact, the murder rate in the U.S. in 1997 was lower than it had been since the 1960's. This trend raises another question about the superpredator theory. If the increase in juvenile homicides between 1987 and 1993 is explained by the development of a new breed of juvenile superpredator, then what explains the substantial decline after 1994? Nothing in the superpredator notion would predict such a decline.

Relevant to an understanding of juvenile murder arrest trends is the link between murder rates and weapon use. The relationship of the murder age-arrest curves for 1980 and 1997 is very different from the relationship for assaults and more similar to that for weapons law violations. (See murder graph and weapons graph.) For assaults, rates were higher in 1997 than in 1980 for all age groups. For murders, the rates were lower in 1997 than in 1980 for all persons above age 25, but there were substantial increases in murder rates among juveniles and young adults. The age-specific arrest rate trend profile for weapons violations is comparable to that for murder, showing large increases for juveniles and young adults.

Further evidence concerning the link between juvenile murder arrest trends and weapons use can be found in the FBI's Supplementary Homicide Report data, which show that the overall trend in homicides by juveniles—the increase from the mid-1980's through 1993 and the subsequent decline through 1997—is entirely attributable to homicides committed with firearms. This finding also argues against the existence of juvenile superpredators. Superpredators probably would not be selective about how they kill. They would use any weapon available—guns, knives, clubs, fists, motor vehicles, explosive devices. If superpredators were responsible for the increase in juvenile murder arrests, then there would be increases in murders in all weapons categories. But this is not the case: the increase was firearm-related, as was the subsequent decline. Trends in juvenile homicide arrests are linked to gun use (as reflected in trends in weapons-related arrests).

In summary, this analysis of juvenile homicide arrests also leads to the conclusion that juvenile superpredators are more myth than reality. In the early 1990's this myth caused a panic that changed the juvenile justice system and its response to the Nation's youth.

1999 National Report Series, Juvenile Justice Bulletin: Juvenile Justice: A Century of Change	February 2000