History shows that it is a fool's errand to try to predict future crime trends. The first edition of this publication series, using 1992 data, speculated about future juvenile violence. Assuming that the arrest rate would continue to grow as it had in the previous 5 years or that the rate would hold constant, increased juvenile violence was anticipated. Some researchers even predicted a coming bloodbath. Since these predictions, murders by juveniles have declined remarkably, and the juvenile violent crime arrest rate in 1997 was at its lowest level in the 1990's.

It would be simple to predict the future if juvenile violent crime trends were primarily related to changes in the size of the juvenile population. But as recent arrest trends clearly show, the number of juvenile arrests for violent crimes is unrelated to the size of the juvenile population. From 1987 to 1994, while the juvenile population grew slightly, juvenile arrests for violent crime soared. Then, as the juvenile population increased slightly from 1994 through 1997, juvenile arrests dropped precipitously. In fact, the magnitude of the decline in violent crime arrests in the 3-year period between 1994 and 1997 was greater than the projected growth in the juvenile population over the next 20 years.

No one has been able to predict juvenile violence trends accurately. It is clear, however, that the Nation is not doomed to high levels of juvenile violence simply because the juvenile population will increase. As Attorney General Janet Reno has often said, demography is not destiny. Most of the violent juvenile offenders in the year 2010 have not yet even entered grade school. Current and future social and policy changes will have more effect on juvenile violent crime and arrest trends than will population changes.

1999 National Report Series, Juvenile Justice Bulletin: Juvenile Justice: A Century of Change	February 2000