The chance of being murdered varies with age, gender, and race

In Crime in the United States 1999, the FBI documented the probability of being a murder victim in 1997, showing how these probabilities varied by age, gender, and race. For example, the study found that 7.12 of every 100,000 children who had not reached their first birthday were murdered in the United States in 1997. Within this age group, the probability of being murdered was higher for males (8.36) than females (5.82) and far greater for blacks (16.72) than for whites (5.19) or other races (5.26).

Overall, juveniles with the lowest risk of becoming murder victims were those ages 4 through 12, with probabilities ranging from 0.42 to 0.94. The oldest juveniles were at most risk. For every 100,000 persons age 17 in the U.S. population in 1997, 12.87 were murdered. In 1997, persons age 20 had the highest risk of being murdered (20.24). In 1978, the risk was highest for persons age 28. This change from 1978 to 1997 reflects a general shift during this period toward younger age groups as peak ages for murder victimization.

For both genders, the murder risk was relatively high during the first year of life, generally declined during the grade school years, and increased during the teenage years. However, whereas the murder risk for males was more than twice as great at age 17 as during the first year of life (21.88 versus 8.36), the increasing risk for females during the teenage years never rose to the risk levels of the first year of life. In 1997, a 17-year-old female’s risk of being a murder victim was about half that of a baby girl (3.20 versus 5.82). In fact, the FBI analyses show that the age at which a female in 1997 was at highest risk of being murdered was her first year of life. The second most risky year was age 24 (5.57).

Overall, the murder risk for black juveniles in 1997 was about triple that of white juveniles. This disparity in murder risk was lowest for youth ages 10 and 11, where the risks for whites and blacks were essentially equal. However, the rate for black infants was more than triple that for white infants (16.72 versus 5.19). Most disparate among juveniles was the murder risk for 17-year-old blacks, which was seven times the rate for whites (45.96 versus 6.43).

Juvenile Arrests 1999	Juvenile Justice Bulletin • December 2000