Substantiated Sexual Abuse

After a 15-year increase (1977–92), national data show that substantiated cases of child sexual abuse have been decreasing since about 1992. Summary data from NCANDS indicate that cases of substantiated child sexual abuse reached an estimated peak of 149,800 in 1992, followed by declines of 2 to 11 percent each year through 1998, the last year for which data are available (figure 1). In 1998, estimated cases of child sexual abuse reached a low of approximately 103,600.¹ This is a total decline of 31 percent in identified child sexual abuse cases over a 6-year period.

The trend is not universal, but it is affecting more and more States.² Between 1990 and 1992, 14 States experienced increases of 20 percent or more in substantiated cases of child sexual abuse. Only three States recorded notable declines during the same period (figure 2). Between 1992 and 1994, however, 22 States experienced declines of 20 percent or more in substantiated cases of child sexual abuse. Between 1994 and 1996, 18 States saw further declines of this magnitude. Meanwhile, the number of States recording increases of 20 percent or more had fallen to one. From 1996 to 1998, 13 States recorded substantial declines, while 6 recorded substantial increases. Over the whole period (1992–98), the majority of States (36 out of 47 with complete data) experienced a total decline of more than 30 percent in substantiated cases of child sexual abuse from their peak year to the year 1998 (figure 3). There is no clear regional pattern to these declines, which have occurred across all areas of the country.

These significant declines contrast with the period of the 1980’s, when most States experienced 10-percent annual increases in child sexual abuse caseloads. Even as recently as 1991–92, 18 States experienced these 10-percent increases. This trend is reflected in the Third National Incidence Study of Child Abuse and Neglect (NIS–3), which reported a 125-percent rise in the incidence of child sexual abuse from 1986 to 1993 (Sedlak and Broadhurst, 1996). This study identified a nationally representative sample of counties across the country and surveyed professionals in schools, daycare centers, hospitals, police departments, and CPS offices about cases of observed child maltreatment. However, the NIS series, which measured incidence at only three time points (1980, 1986, and 1993), does not offer information recent enough to detect the decline in cases that had only begun to gather steam in 1993.

The Decline in Child Sexual Abuse Cases	Juvenile Justice Bulletin •January 2001