Decline in Child Sexual Abuse Greater Than Decline in Physical Abuse or Neglect

The decline in reported and substantiated cases of child sexual abuse does not appear to be just an extension of a general declining trend in overall child maltreatment. The estimated total reports of child maltreatment increased dramatically in the 1980’s and, though the rate of increase has slowed, the numbers have continued to climb through the 1990’s.⁴

However, despite increasing numbers of reports during the 1990’s, the percentage of reports that were child sexual abuse allegations decreased. Sexual abuse reports dropped from 16 percent of all child maltreatment reports in 1986 to an average of 8 percent of reports from 1996 to 1998.

According to NCANDS data, there has been a slight decline (9 percent) in substantiated cases of general maltreatment during the 1990’s. Overall maltreatment reached an estimated peak of 1,206,500 in 1992 and dropped to a low of 1,093,600 in 1998. The decline in child sexual abuse appears to account for most of this decline. Neglect cases, which make up the greatest proportion of CPS cases, have declined an estimated 5 percent from a peak in 1994. A somewhat more noticeable decline has occurred with physical abuse cases, but this decline is half the size and more recent than the decline in child sexual abuse cases (figure 5). The peak in substantiated cases of physical abuse occurred in 1995, and there was a 16-percent decline over the next 3 years. The largest proportion of that decline (13 percent) occurred from 1997 to 1998. In comparison, the number of substantiated cases of child sexual abuse underwent a more gradual 31-percent decline over a 6-year period (1992–98).

Across the country, an overwhelming majority of States are recording more dramatic declines in child sexual abuse than in other types of maltreatment. Thirty-three States experienced greater declines in substantiated cases of child sexual abuse than in substantiated cases of physical abuse. Thirteen of these States experienced declines in child sexual abuse that were much greater (more than 20 percent greater) than their declines in physical abuse (figure 6). Only four States, on the other hand, recorded much greater declines in their physical abuse cases. Just as the increase in child sexual abuse cases in the 1980’s outpaced that of physical abuse cases, so their decline in the 1990’s appears to be singularly dramatic as well.

The Decline in Child Sexual Abuse Cases	Juvenile Justice Bulletin •January 2001