Possible Reasons for the Decline

Several factors may explain the decline in child sexual abuse cases. These factors generally can be divided into two categories: (1) a real decline in child sexual abuse or (2) changes in attitudes, policies, or standards that result in fewer reports and substantiations. Figure 7 illustrates some of the factors that could reduce the number of reports and substantiated cases of child sexual abuse. Although these are alternative explanations of the trend, they are not mutually exclusive. Any or all of these processes could be occurring simultaneously.

Decline in True Incidence

The most optimistic explanation is that incidents of child sexual abuse are decreasing. A great deal of public awareness of the problem has developed in the past 20 years. Prevention programs that target children are widespread (Finkelhor and Dziuba-Leatherman, 1995). A large number of offenders have been incarcerated (Beck et al., 1993). Many treatment programs have been directed toward offenders to prevent them from reoffending (Freeman-Longo et al., 1994), and laws have been passed in many States to improve the monitoring of sex offenders in the community (Finn, 1997). All of these efforts could have the cumulative effect of reducing incidents of child sexual abuse.

Evidence that child sexual abuse has actually declined appears to be supported by parallel declines in various social problem indicators with possibly similar etiological sources. For example, national rates of female victimization by intimate partners, rape victimization, and overall violent crime have been declining at levels comparable to the child sexual abuse rate over a similar period of time (figure 8). There has been a 21-percent decline in the rate of female victimization by intimate partners since 1993, a 60-percent decline in the rate of forcible rape since 1991, and a 30-percent decline in the rate of overall violent crime since 1994. Each of these declines is likely to represent an actual decrease in incidence because they are based on the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS), a direct self-report survey. Factors that may be responsible for the declines in these crimes could also be responsible for the declines in child sexual abuse.

Trends in child sexual abuse could be expected to parallel trends in intimate partner violence in particular. Both crimes involve primarily female victims and male perpetrators and both crimes have been obscured because victims are embarrassed and the crimes often occur in private locations. The two problems also share similar advocacy histories. Both child sexual abuse and partner violence received similar national attention during the 1980’s through widespread public awareness programs, increased prevention programs, a growth in the variety of treatment options for offenders, and intensified efforts to report, prosecute, and incarcerate offenders.

There may also be a connection between the well-documented declines in the rates of teen births (down 21 percent since 1991) and child poverty (down 18 percent since 1993) and the decline in child sexual abuse. Child sexual abuse has been shown to be a significant risk factor for, and sometimes a direct cause of, teen pregnancy (Boyer and Fine, 1992; Elders and Albert, 1998), so the decline in teen births could be seen as consistent with a decline in sexual abuse. Still, teen births could also decline for reasons completely unrelated to sexual abuse. As for poverty, economic variables typically have been more closely associated with rates of physical abuse and neglect than with rates of sexual abuse. Nonetheless, because it alleviates despair, reduces the free time of potential perpetrators, and gives them a stake in conformity, improvement in a family’s economic stability may offer children some protection from sexual abuse victimization as well. The fact that other child welfare indicators show so much improvement makes the possibility of a real decline in child sexual abuse seem more plausible.

However, while at the national level the trends in these indicators appear similar to trends in child sexual abuse, they do not track at the State level. Using correlational procedures, no relationships were found at the State level between declines in child sexual abuse and declines in rape, violent crime, child poverty, adolescent pregnancy, and several other child-related indicators.⁵ In other words, the States that saw the greatest declines in child sexual abuse were not necessarily the States that saw the greatest declines in these other variables. Although the country is recording national declines in overall crime and general increases in child and family well-being, it is unclear how and whether these trends are related to the decline in child sexual abuse.

Decline in Reporting

While the decline in reports and substantiated cases of child sexual abuse could reflect a real decline in the problem, it is also possible that these declines are completely or partly due to factors unrelated to the actual incidence of sexual abuse. Only a subset of child sexual abuse cases are actually identified and reported to a child protective service agency each year. A number of factors could have reduced the number of reports being made to these agencies, even if the yearly incidence of sexual abuse itself had not declined.

One possibility is that reporting behaviors have changed. For example, there could be an increased reluctance to report child sexual abuse because of a so-called child abuse backlash. Some researchers who have analyzed media coverage of child sexual abuse have found a more skeptical attitude toward the topic in the 1990’s (Beckett, 1996; Myers, 1994). According to these researchers, the dominant message of recent publicity about child sexual abuse has been that false allegations are frequent, that many innocent people are being unfairly stigmatized, and that professionals are being overly zealous in reporting possible cases of sexual abuse. Those concerned about a backlash point to increased activity by advocacy groups who distribute anti-CPS literature and support legislative initiatives to increase the rights of alleged perpetrators. As a result of this activity, victims and their confidants may have become more reluctant to seek help and professionals more reluctant to report their suspicions.

Another possibility is that the public and/or professionals who are mandated to report possible cases of child sexual abuse have become less vigilant about identifying cases of sexual abuse and reporting them to CPS. There was an upsurge of public attention to this issue in the 1980’s—given the public awareness campaigns, notable cases of sexual abuse publicized by the media, and the increased presence of prevention programs in schools—leading to more vigilant identification and reporting of potential victims. In the 1990’s, however, there may have been some decline in the prominence of this issue, resulting in reduced reports.

It would be an unfortunate occurrence if, because of decreased attention, fewer true victims were being identified. However, it could also be that the public or professionals are reporting less child sexual abuse because they are better distinguishing between actual signs of sexual abuse and signs of other problems. For example, in the 1980’s, a diagnosis of urinary tract infection (UTI) in a child may, by itself, have resulted in a call to a CPS agency. However, education over the past decade has increased awareness that a UTI in a child can have many sources and that more evidence is necessary to make a report of suspected sexual abuse.

There is an additional possibility that could reduce the number of reports of child sexual abuse. Thirty years ago, when public awareness campaigns and prevention programs were initiated, many victims were identified whose experiences had previously gone unrecognized. It is likely that the upsurge in cases during the 1980’s included many cases where the abuse had occurred over a long period of time or several years prior to the report. This reservoir of longer standing cases may have been reduced so that each year an increasing proportion of reports are recent cases of abuse. This might appear as a decline in total cases even if the yearly incidence of sexual abuse remains the same.

Decline in Substantiation of Cases

Informal changes in screening may also be occurring. For example, if caseloads have been increasing, CPS workers may begin screening out less serious cases or may in other ways increase the threshold for what is accepted for investigation. Some evidence suggests that such a change in screening does occur when caseloads increase (Wells, Downing, and Fluke, 1991), but it is unclear why such a change might affect child sexual abuse cases in particular and not other forms of maltreatment.

Finally, there could also be changes that affect which investigations result in substantiation. Given the criticisms that they have experienced, CPS investigators may have become more conservative in the standards and criteria they use to substantiate cases. If agencies are fearful of becoming entangled in an appeals process, they may be more cautious about which cases they substantiate. Changes in investigative procedures could lead to a decline in substantiated cases. For example, many CPS agencies have added a structured decisionmaking component to their investigation procedures (English and Pecora, 1994). It is possible that with greater structure, fewer cases meet the criteria for substantiation than would have if the investigator had used his or her clinical judgment. Such changes in investigative procedures could be positive if the result is more effective and accurate judgment. More cases in which sexual abuse did not in fact occur may be getting screened out. On the other hand, if valid cases of sexual abuse are now being screened out to a greater degree as a result of changes in investigative procedures, it could mean that more children are remaining in dangerous situations.

State Trend Analysis

It appears likely that, in at least a few States, changes in policy and procedure are having a noticeable effect on the child sexual abuse trend. The authors looked more closely at child sexual abuse trends within each State with the hypothesis that if the decline in substantiated cases was the result of a policy or a programmatic change, a substantial part of the decline would occur over a period of a year or two. Three patterns were identified that depicted contrasting trends for all 47 States with available data (figure 9). These patterns were labeled “continuous decline,” “discontinuous decline,” and “fluctuating change.” The continuous decline pattern described States that had seen a fairly substantial total decline in child sexual abuse cases (25 percent or more) over an extended period of time (at least three yearly declines since the peak year). However, if a State showed a particularly large decline (33 percent or more) occurring within a single year, it was described as showing a discontinuous decline. Finally, States that reported either a total decline of less than 25 percent or fewer than three yearly declines since their peak were described as showing a pattern of fluctuating change. These States were labeled as fluctuating because most of them saw notable periods of decline that were then offset by years in which the number of child sexual abuse cases increased.

The table below lists the States and their total percentage decline in child sexual abuse cases for each of the three trend patterns. The discontinuous decline pattern occurred in 13 States. As hypothesized, this suggests that a policy or program change may account for a large percentage of the total decline in these States. However, the trend in the majority of States (26) followed the continuous decline pattern of a gradual decline occurring over several years. For these States, it does not appear that an abrupt policy or program change could adequately account for the decline. Instead, it is likely that the trends in these States are the result of more subtle changes. Changes in caseworkers’ attitudes or a declining incidence of child sexual abuse would, for example, affect the numbers of sexual abuse cases at a more gradual rate.

It is also important to keep in mind that although changes in CPS attitudes and policy may at least partially account for the decline in substantiated cases, these changes alone clearly do not represent the entire picture. The parallel decline in reports of child sexual abuse suggests that other factors, occurring before a case even reaches a child protective agency, must also be affecting the overall decline.

The Decline in Child Sexual Abuse Cases	Juvenile Justice Bulletin •January 2001