Conclusion
While the evidence demonstrates that a dramatic decline in reports and substantiated cases of child sexual abuse has occurred, the reasons for the decline are less clear. The available data suggest that this decline is not simply explained by trends in other types of maltreatment but is instead something particularly affecting child sexual abuse cases. It could be that the observed decline is the result of a decrease in the actual incidence of child sexual abuse, a change in reporting behavior, and/or policy and program changes within CPS. Although it may be difficult to sort through the possible causes of the decline, doing so will provide a better gauge of efforts to protect children from sexual victimization.Additional research is crucial to a better understanding of the causes of the decline in child sexual abuse. Further analysis of CPS administrative data could help determine the relationship between trends in initial reports, screened reports, and substantiated reports. Analysis of changes in the types of reporters, the ages of alleged victims, the characteristics of alleged perpetrators, and the characteristics of the abuse would provide information on the types of cases that have seen the greatest declines. Evaluation research is needed on changes in CPS policies and procedures so that the impact of these changes on child victims and their families can be better understood. Finally, the issues discussed in this Bulletin highlight the need for better justice system data about this crime, such as will be available when the National Incident-Based Reporting System becomes national in scope or as could be provided by a regularly conducted population survey concerning crimes against children.
Despite the dramatic nature of the decline in child sexual abuse cases and the importance of identifying its sources, a discussion of these issues has not yet made it to the public arena. Greater publicity has been given to other social indicators for which the declines have been less dramatic. Rates of general crime, child poverty, and teen births have declined at an equal or lesser rate than child sexual abuse, yet these declines have received more attention and have generated more discussion. This Bulletin is an attempt to direct similar attention to trends in child sexual abuse, in the hope that increased public attention will result in better assessment of the progress made to date in protecting children and ultimately will lead to improved future efforts.
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NCANDS and the Annual Fifty State Survey
Data from child protective services (CPS) agencies are collected, summarized, and published annually by two different organizations: the Children’s Bureau and Prevent Child Abuse America. The Children’s Bureau, located within the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services’ Administration for Children and Families, oversees the National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System (NCANDS). The National Center on Child Abuse and Neglect established NCANDS in response to the Child Abuse Prevention and Treatment Act (PL 93–247), which called for the creation of a coordinated, universal, national data collection program. A survey is sent to all of the States each year requesting information from State child welfare agencies on a number of variables related to child maltreatment. NCANDS collects CPS data using a two-pronged approach. Aggregate data on a number of key indicators are collected through the Summary Data Component (SDC) from all States. The first published report consisted of 1990 data (U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, 1992). More extensive, case-level data are collected through the Detailed Case Data Component (DCDC). Only 20 States were able to provide data for DCDC in 1998 (U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, 2000). To best capture national trends, SDC data were used in the analyses conducted for this Bulletin. Prevent Child Abuse America (previously the National Committee to Prevent Child Abuse) is a private, nonprofit organization that oversees national, State, and community programs directed at preventing child abuse. Through its Annual Fifty State Survey, this organization collects CPS agency data on the number and characteristics of child abuse reports and substantiations, child abuse fatalities, and changes that have occurred in child welfare services (Wang and Harding, 1999). The survey has been conducted each year since 1986. The data collected by Prevent Child Abuse America are the only source of information on reports categorized by maltreatment type and therefore the best resource for tracking national trends in child sexual abuse reports. One limitation of the data provided by NCANDS and the Annual Fifty State Survey is that at least a few States are missing from the summary each year. This means that the numbers of reports and substantiated cases are not true national totals. For example, NCANDS data for 1998 indicated that the total number of substantiated child sexual abuse cases was 99,278, up 1 percent from 98,339 in 1997. But the total for 1998 is based on 48 States, while the 1997 total is based on 43 States. To control for the differences in the number of States providing data, the numbers of substantiated cases for each year (1990–98) have been extrapolated to account for the total U.S. population under age 18. This brings the estimates for 1997 and 1998 to 117,000 and 103,600, respectively, an 11-percent decline over this period. Although the extrapolated numbers provide only a crude estimate of the actual number of substantiated cases, they do allow a more accurate assessment of the rate of decline in child sexual abuse cases over the years. |
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