NISMART Bulletin: National Estimates of Missing Children: An Overview

Table 2 presents the unified estimates of the number of children who are counted as caretaker missing children. These figures are annual estimates, reflecting the number of children who became missing at some time during the study year. The Unified Estimate Methodology on this page explains how the estimates were derived.

NISMART-2 Unified Estimate Methodology

Information from all four NISMART–2 studies (see Study Descriptions sidebar) was integrated to construct unified estimates of the number of missing children. Two key principles guided this integration:

Principle 1: To combine episode information within a survey, each sampled child could only be counted once in the unified estimate.

Principle 2: To unify episode information across surveys, a given subgroup of children could be represented by information from one survey only.

Beginning with the information from the Household Survey of Adult Caretakers, children who qualified as missing on the basis of any countable episode other than a stereotypical kidnapping were entered into the unified estimate. In accordance with the first principle above, children who were missing on different occasions, because of multiple episodes, were only counted once in the unified estimate. In accordance with the second principle, those with stereotypical kidnappings were excluded at this point, because the Law Enforcement Study data were used to represent these children.

Next, Household Survey children not yet included in the unified estimate were added to it if their responses to the Household Survey of Youth showed that they met the criteria for a missing child. Again, children who were missing solely because of a stereotypical kidnapping were not added at this point and children who were missing in multiple qualifying episodes were only added once.

At the third stage, the runaways from institutions who were identified in the Juvenile Facilities Study were added, but only if they did not also run away from a household during the study year. This restriction was necessary because runaways from households were already represented in the Household Survey data.

Finally, children who were missing because of stereotypical kidnappings were added from the Law Enforcement Study data. The Law Enforcement Study was used as the data source for this rare subset of nonfamily abducted children because no reliable estimate could be developed from the Household Surveys.

A more detailed description of the unified estimate methodology is provided in OJJDP’s forthcoming Unified Estimate Methodology Technical Report.

The total number of children who were missing from their caretakers in 1999, including children who were reported missing and those who were not, is estimated to be 1,315,600. Because this estimate is based on samples, sampling error qualifies its statistical precision. The 95-percent confidence interval indicates that if the study were to be repeated with the same methodology 100 times, 95 of the replications would produce an estimate between 1,131,100 and 1,500,100. The total estimate of a little more than 1.3 million reflects an annual rate of 18.8 children per 1,000 in the general population of children nationwide.⁴ The number of missing children who were reported missing in 1999 (i.e., reported to police or missing children’s agencies in order to locate them) was estimated to be 797,500, which is equivalent to a rate of 11.4 children per 1,000 in the U.S. population. Children reported missing to police and other missing children’s agencies represent 61 percent of all children classified as caretaker missing. The diagram accompanying table 2 illustrates the fact that children who were reported missing are a subset of the caretaker missing children.

Table 2: Unified Estimates of Caretaker Missing Children and Reported Missing Children

Category

Estimated Total
(95% Confidence Interval)*

Rate per 1,000 in U.S.
Child Population
(95% Confidence Interval)*

Caretaker missing children^†
(reported and not reported)

1,315,600
(1,131,100–1,500,100)

18.8
(16.1–21.4)

Reported missing
children^‡

797,500
(645,400–949,500)

11.4
(9.2–13.5)

Note: All estimates are rounded to the nearest 100.

* The 95-percent confidence interval indicates that if the study were repeated 100 times, 95 of the replications would produce estimates within the ranges noted.

^† Child’s whereabouts were unknown, caretaker was alarmed and tried to locate the child.

^‡ Reported to police or a missing children’s agency for purposes of locating the child.

The diagram illustrates the proportional relationship between the total number of caretaker missing children and the subset of children who were reported missing.

In considering these estimates, it is important to recognize that nearly all of the caretaker missing children (1,312,800 or 99.8 percent) were returned home alive or located by the time the study data were collected. Only a fraction of a percent (0.2 percent or 2,500) of all caretaker missing children had not returned home or been located, and the vast majority of these were runaways from institutions who had been identified through the Juvenile Facilities Study.⁵ (Details on episode outcomes—whether the child was returned home alive or located—are presented in the NISMART–2 episode-specific Bulletins.)

Estimates by Type of Episode

Table 3 reports the reasons children became missing. Data are shown for all caretaker missing children and for those who were reported missing.

Table 3: Reasons Children Became Missing

Episode Type	Estimated Total*	95% Confidence Interval^†	Percent*	Rate per 1,000 Children in U.S. Population (N = 70,172,700)
Caretaker Missing Children (n = 1,315,600)
Nonfamily abduction^‡	33,000^§	(2,000–64,000)	3^§	0.47^§
Family abduction	117,200	(79,000–155,400)	9	1.67
Runaway/thrownaway	628,900	(481,000–776,900)	48	8.96
Missing involuntary, lost, or injured	198,300	(124,800–271,800)	15	2.83
Missing benign explanation	374,700	(289,900–459,500)	28	5.34
Reported Missing Children (n = 797,500)
Nonfamily abduction^‡	12,100^§	(<100–31,000)	2^§	0.17^§
Family abduction	56,500	(22,600–90,400)	7	0.81
Runaway/thrownaway	357,600	(238,000–477,200)	45	5.10
Missing involuntary, lost, or injured	61,900	(19,700–104,100)	8	0.88
Missing benign explanation	340,500	(256,000–425,000)	43	4.85
Note: All estimates are rounded to the nearest 100. * Estimates sum to more than the total of 1,315,600, and percents sum to more than 100, because children who had multiple episodes are included in every row that applies to them. ^† The 95-percent confidence interval indicates that, if the study were repeated 100 times, 95 of the replications would produce estimates within the ranges noted. ^‡ Nonfamily abduction includes stereotypical kidnapping. ^§ Estimate is based on an extremely small sample of cases; therefore, its precision and confidence interval are unreliable.

Of all caretaker missing children, nearly one-half (48 percent) were missing because of a runaway/thrownaway episode. More than one-fourth (28 percent) became missing as a result of benign explanation circumstances (miscommunications or misunderstandings between child and caretaker). Children who were missing because they became lost or injured accounted for 15 percent of all caretaker missing children. Less than one-tenth (9 percent) of caretaker missing children were abducted by family members, and only 3 percent were abducted by nonfamily perpetrators.

A somewhat different picture emerges from the estimates of children who were reported missing to police or missing children’s agencies. Although runaway/ thrownaway children reflect a substantial minority of reported missing children (45 percent), nearly as many children (43 percent) became missing because of benign reasons. Comparable percentages of reported missing children were missing because they were lost or injured (8 percent) and because they had been abducted by a family member (7 percent). Only a small percentage were missing because of a nonfamily abduction (2 percent).

Stereotypical kidnappings. In table 3, the estimates for nonfamily abducted children include primarily crimes involving a modest amount of forced movement or detention that correspond with the way in which abduction is legally defined in most State statutes. Such abductions are rare enough that the estimates of the number of caretaker missing and reported missing children abducted by a nonfamily perpetrator are not very reliable and have very large confidence intervals. Stereotypical kidnappings are the particular type of nonfamily abduction that receives the most media attention and involves a stranger or slight acquaintance who detains the child overnight, transports the child at least 50 miles, holds the child for ransom, abducts the child with intent to keep the child permanently, or kills the child. They represent an extremely small portion of all missing children. (The Law Enforcement Study found that an estimated 115 of the nonfamily abducted children were victims of stereotypical kidnappings and that 90 of these qualified as reported missing.)⁶

Multiple episodes. In table 3, children who had multiple types of episodes are included in every row that applies to them. Of the 1,315,600 caretaker missing children, 36,500 (3 percent) experienced more than one type of episode during the year. All of these multiple-episode children experienced a runaway/thrownaway episode and one other type of episode (missing benign explanation for 86 percent of the children, family abduction for 8 percent, and missing involuntary, lost, or injured for 5 percent). Of the estimated 797,500 reported missing children, 31,100 (4 percent) experienced multiple types of episodes. Every reported missing child with multiple episodes experienced a runaway/thrownaway episode and a missing benign explanation episode.

Estimates by Age, Gender, and Race/Ethnicity

Tables 4, 5, and 6 show the demographic characteristics of missing children. The tables show distributions by age, gender, and race/ethnicity for caretaker missing children and for children who were reported missing to police or missing children’s agencies. The tables also include demographic distributions for all children in the U.S. population, providing a basis for assessing the relative level of risk of becoming caretaker missing (and being reported missing) for children in each demographic group.

Age. As shown in table 4, the great majority of missing children were older teenagers (ages 15–17) and young adolescents (ages 12–14). Together, these age groups accounted for about three-fourths of caretaker missing children. The age distribution of reported missing children mirrors that of caretaker missing children. The table also shows that, for nearly all age levels, the percentage in the U.S. child population falls well outside of the 95-percent confidence interval for the study. This means that children age 12 and older had a risk of becoming caretaker missing (and of being reported missing) that was significantly higher than would be expected on the basis of their representation in the U.S. child population, whereas the risk for younger children was significantly lower than would be expected.

Table 4: Ages of Missing Children

Age	Estimated Total	95% Confidence Interval*	Percent	95% Confidence Interval*	Percent of U.S. Child Population (N = 70,172,700)
Caretaker Missing Children
0–5	138,200	(89,600–186,700)	11	(7–14)	33
6–11	175,300	(117,100–233,600)	13	(9–17)	34
12–14	402,400	(292,400–512,500)	31	(23–38)	17
15–17	596,900	(476,700–717,100)	45	(38–53)	17
Total	1,315,600	(1,131,100–1,500,100)	100		100
Reported Missing Children
0–5	96,500	(48,400–144,700)	12	(7–17)	33
6–11	113,400	(61,500–165,300)	14	(8–20)	34
12–14	235,500	(161,300–309,700)	30	(19–40)	17
15–17	349,300	(253,600–444,900)	44	(35–53)	17
Total	797,500	(645,400–949,500)	100		100
Note: All estimates are rounded to the nearest 100. Percents may not sum to 100 because of rounding. * The 95-percent confidence interval indicates that if the study were repeated 100 times, 95 of the replications would produce estimates within the ranges noted.

Gender. Table 5 shows that, although boys appear to be somewhat overrepresented among caretaker missing and reported missing children, the U.S. child population percentages fall within the 95-percent confidence intervals. This means that the gender distribution for missing children is not significantly different from the distribution for the U.S. child population.

Table 5: Gender of Missing Children

Gender	Estimated Total	95% Confidence Interval*	Percent	95% Confidence Interval*	Percent of U.S. Child Population (N = 70,172,700)
Caretaker Missing Children
Male	754,500	(604,200–904,800)	57	(51–64)	51
Female	561,100	(459,000–663,200)	43	(36–49)	49
Total	1,315,600	(1,131,100–1,500,100)	100		100
Reported Missing Children
Male	409,400	(290,400–528,400)	51	(42–61)	51
Female	388,000	(296,900–479,200)	49	(39–58)	49
Total	797,500	(645,400–949,500)	100		100
Note: All estimates are rounded to the nearest 100. Percents may not sum to 100 because of rounding. * The 95-percent confidence interval indicates that if the study were repeated 100 times, 95 of the replications would produce estimates within the ranges noted.

Race/ethnicity. White children had a significantly lower risk of being caretaker missing and reported missing than one would expect based on their representation in the overall U.S. child population. Although the percentages of minority children among missing children appear slightly higher than their percentages in the U.S. child population, no single group of minority children had a significantly higher risk of becoming missing.

Table 6: Race/Ethnicity of Missing Children

Race/Ethnicity	Estimated Total	95% Confidence Interval*	Percent	95% Confidence Interval*	Percent of U.S. Child Population (N = 70,172,700)
Caretaker Missing Children
White, non-Hispanic	752,300	(624,800–879,700)	57	(51–63)	65
Black, non-Hispanic	215,000	(140,100–289,900)	16	(11–22)	15
Hispanic	234,500	(149,100–319,800)	18	(12–24)	16
Other	107,200	(50,400–164,000)	8	(4–12)	5
No information	6,700^†	(<100–15,000)	1^†	(<1–1)	—
Total	1,315,600	(1,131,100–1,500,100)	100		100
Reported Missing Children
White, non-Hispanic	428,800	(331,500–526,100)	54	(46–62)	65
Black, non-Hispanic	149,700	(90,100–209,400)	19	(12–26)	15
Hispanic	163,900	(88,900–238,900)	21	(13–29)	16
Other	52,100	(19,000–85,200)	7	(3–10)	5
No information	3,000^†	(<100–6,900)	<1^†	(<1–1)	—
Total	797,500	(645,400–949,500)	100		100
Note: All estimates are rounded to the nearest 100. Percents may not sum to 100 because of rounding. * The 95-percent confidence interval indicates that, if the study were repeated 100 times, 95 of the replications would produce estimates within the ranges noted. ^† Estimate is based on too few sample cases to be reliable.

Children Not Classified as Missing

The earlier discussion under “Conceptualizing the Missing Child Problem” notes that children counted as “caretaker missing” or “reported missing” in NISMART–2 were not the only children to experience episodes of interest to the study. Some children experienced nonfamily or family abduction episodes or runaway/thrownaway episodes but were neither missing from their caretakers nor reported missing to authorities. Examples include children who ran away to the homes of relatives or friends, causing their caretakers little or no concern; children who were held by family members in known locations (e.g., an ex-spouse’s home); and children who were abducted by nonfamily perpetrators but released before anyone noticed that they were missing. These children experienced episodes but were not counted as missing children.

For each of the five types of episodes, table 7 shows the total number of children who experienced an episode, the percentage who were classified as caretaker missing, and the percentage who were classified as reported missing. As the table shows, all children who experienced missing involuntary, lost, or injured episodes and missing benign explanation episodes were classified as caretaker missing; this is because such episodes involve a missing child by definition. Only a little more than half of the children who experienced family and nonfamily abductions and 37 percent of those who experienced runaway/thrownaway episodes, however, were included in NISMART estimates of caretaker missing children. For all types of episodes except missing benign explanation, between one-fifth and one-third of children experiencing episodes were reported missing. (Benign explanation episodes, by definition, involve police contact. The percentage of children reported missing for this type of episode is 91 percent, not 100 percent, because some cases were reported to the police for reasons other than locating the child.)

Table 7: Estimated Total Number of Children With Episodes and the Percent Who Were Counted as Caretaker Missing and Reported Missing

Episode Type	Total Number of Children With Episodes (Missing and Nonmissing)	Percent in Row Counted as Caretaker Missing*	Percent in Row Counted as Reported Missing^†
Nonfamily abduction	58,200	57	21
Family abduction	203,900	57	28
Runaway/thrownaway	1,682,900	37	21
Missing involuntary, lost, or injured	198,300	100^‡	31
Missing benign explanation	374,700	100^‡	91
Note: These estimates cannot be added or combined. All estimates are rounded to the nearest 100. * Whereabouts unknown to caretaker, caretaker was alarmed and tried to locate child. ^† Reported to police or a missing children’s agency for purposes of locating the child. ^‡ By definition, all children with episodes in this category are caretaker missing.

Contents


National Estimates of Missing Children: An Overview	NISMART Bulletin October 2002