A major purpose of this Report is to present information on the numbers, types, and locations of youth gang localities in the United States and to trace developments in these localities over a 25-year period. However, before presenting detailed information on specific localities and change trends, it will be useful to summarize the gang problem situation as of the end of 1995.

Numbers and Populations of Gang Localities

Figure 1 shows the numbers and percentages of localities that reported youth gang problems at any point during the period from 1970 through 1995 for each of three types of localities—States, counties, and cities. By 1995, all 50 States and the District of Columbia had reported youth gang problems in one or more of their cities, towns, or counties.

The last of the 50 States to report the emergence of gang problems was Vermont, which reported youth gangs in Rutland, Burlington, and Brattleboro in late 1994.

Figure 1 shows that, as of the end of 1995, there were 3,043 counties in the United States, of which 706, or 23.2 percent, had reported gang problems. There were 35,935 cities and towns, of which 1,487, or 4.1 percent, had reported gang problems.⁹

What do these data tell us about the extent and seriousness of youth gang problems in the mid-1990's? The fact that 50 States, more than 700 counties, and almost 1,500 cities and towns reported problems with youth gangs (the highest numbers in history) appeared to indicate a serious and growing domestic crime problem. However, the percentage figures for counties, cities, and towns seem to weaken this conclusion. With only about 4 percent of all cities and about 23 percent of all counties in the United States reporting gangs, the number of gang cities and counties as of 1995 was quite small compared with the total number of cities and counties in the country. The fact that about 95 percent of the cities and more than 70 percent of the counties did not report gang problems during a period when the number of known gang localities was approaching a record high provides little support to a contention that gangs posed a widespread crime problem in the mid-1990's.

However, considering only the numbers and percentages of gang cities and counties provides an inadequate basis for judging the seriousness of the problem. What is needed are data on the population of the gang localities compared with the population of all cities. Looking at the population figures for U.S. cities and counties produces a very different picture.

Figure 2 shows the same three types of localities as figure 1, but displays their total populations rather than the number with youth gangs. In 1990, the total population of the United States was about 250 million, and because all States reported gang problems, residents of gang States accounted for 100 percent of the Nation's population. The population of the Nation's gang cities and towns was about 103 million, about 50 percent of the total city population. The county figures show a substantially higher percentage.

The population of the Nation's gang counties was about 175 million in 1995, almost 80 percent of the total county population. With gang localities representing more than one-half of the total city population, over three-quarters of the total county population, and 100 percent of the total State population, these data provide strong support for the conclusion that youth gang problems in the United States posed a domestic crime problem of the first magnitude.

Gang Locality Totals

The following list presents data for 1,487 gang cities and 706 gang counties reporting youth gang problems, 1970 through 1995:

• Total number of gang cities, towns, and villages—1,487.

• Number of counties reporting gang problems, no cities specified (county sources)—42.

• Number of counties reporting specified gang cities (city or county sources)—664.

• Total number of gang counties—706.

• Total number of discrete gang cities and counties—1,529.

• Total number of gang cities and counties (city and county sources)—2,193.

Upon initial consideration, it would seem reasonable simply to add the number of gang cities and gang counties to get a figure of 2,193 for the total numbers of cities and counties reporting youth gang problems as of the end of 1995. However, the county figure incorporates several components and was derived through a counting process that requires explanation.

The data above show that 42 of the counties were reported by county agencies, without reference to any specific cities or towns. There is no problem in adding these to the 1,487 cities to produce a total of 1,529 discrete gang problem localities. The remaining 664 counties were originally listed because they contained one or more gang cities. It is logical to assume that if a county contains cities with gang problems, the county, too, has gang problems. These counties were counted on the basis of the counting rules set forth in table 1.¹⁰

The figure of 2,193 for the total number of gang cities and counties in the United States represents 2,193 named localities. However, as indicated by the counting rules, when a county was listed because it contained a gang city reported by a city agency, the city report became the basis for adding two localities—a city and a county—to the total number, raising the possibility of an overlap of cities and counties.

The 664 counties containing specified gang cities were originally included as discrete localities on the basis of the second counting rule, where city agencies were the source of information. If, however, these counties were also reported as gang-problem counties by county agencies separate from and independent of city agencies, the possibility of overlap counting would be eliminated. Subsequent to the data collection phase for the present Report, results from the 1995 National Youth Gang Survey became available (National Youth Gang Center, 1997). Three hundred and fifteen counties, slightly less than half the number of counties containing specified gang cities, were independently reported by county agencies as having gang problems.

The remaining counties either were not reported as gang counties by the 1995 survey or the survey did not receive information from county agencies. There is no logical reason to suppose that these counties would differ from those that did have county reports, making it very likely that county agencies in some or all of these counties would have reported county gang problems if they had been queried. The independent reporting of gang problems by half of the county agencies and the likelihood that there could have been similar reporting by the other half significantly strengthen the method that produced the figure of 2,193 for the total number of gang localities and virtually eliminates the possibility of overlap counting.

Changes in Numbers and Populations of Gang Localities

Data showing the numbers and populations of gang localities as of 1995 are useful in evaluating the seriousness of gang problems. However, they do not address the major focus of this Report—the trends and changes during the past 25 years in the prevalence and locations of gang-problem localities. The following sections present 25-year changes in the numbers and populations of gang localities.

Changes in Numbers of Gang Counties and Cities

Figure 3 shows the number of counties reporting gang problems during the 1970's, 1980's, and the first half of the 1990's. As explained in the first chapter, the numbers represent "new" gang counties that reported gang problems for the first time during any year in the indicated decade. For example, a county that first reported gang problems in any year between 1970 and 1979 is considered a new gang county for the 1970's. Seventy-three counties reported gang problems in the 1970's, 174 in the 1980's, and 459 in the 1990's. Figure 4 shows the cumulative number of gang counties. The cumulative figures are obtained by adding the number of new counties in each of the two later decades to the number in the previous decade. In this instance, 73 (1970's) is added to 174 (1980's) to get 247, and 247 is added to 459 (1990's) to get the cumulative figure of 706—the total number of counties that reported gang problems between 1970 and 1995. This does not mean that there were in fact 706 gang counties in 1995. It is possible, although rather unlikely, that in some counties gang problems were present in the 1970's or 1980's and absent in 1995. In some cases, problems may have come and gone several times during the 25-year period. The cumulative figure of 706 in figure 4 represents the number of counties that experienced gang problems at any time during this period; however, trend calculations reported here are based on an assumption that cumulative figures and actual figures for designated years are equal.

Table 2 uses the trend data in figure 4 to show the percent change in the number of gang counties and compares this with the Nation as a whole. While the number of counties remained essentially unchanged between 1970 and 1995, the number of counties reporting gang problems increased by 633—from 73 to 706—an increase of 867 percent. In the 1970's, gang counties constituted about 2.5 percent of all U.S. counties, compared with about 23 percent in 1995—a difference of about 21 percent. Thus, almost one U.S. county in five reported youth gang problems in 1995.

Note: "Counties" in this table includes U.S. county units with county governments. Numbers of counties are as of January 1972 and January 1992.

Sources: Data on numbers and populations are from Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1974, table 420, "County, Municipal, and Township Governments, 1972, and Their Population, 1970, by Population Size Groups" (p. 262); and Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1995, table 473, "County, Municipal, and Township Governments, 1992" (p. 298). Both documents were published by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, in Census of Governments, Vol. 1, Governmental Organization.

Changes in Numbers of Gang Cities

Figures 5 and 6 and table 3 show similar sets of figures for cities and towns. New gang problems were reported by 201 cities and towns in the 1970's, 267 in the 1980's, and 1,019 in the 1990's. Cumulative figures show a total of 468 gang cities by the 1980's and a total of 1,487 gang cities by 1995. Table 3 uses the trend data in figure 6 to show the percent change in the number of gang cities and compares this change with that of the Nation as a whole. The number of cities reporting gang problems between 1970 and 1995 rose by 1,286—an increase of 640 percent. The number of gang cities in the 1970's represented less than 1 percent of all cities, rising to about 4 percent in 1996.

Thus, although the number of counties and cities in the United States remained virtually unchanged during the 25-year period, the number of gang cities increased by 640 percent and the number of gang counties increased by 867 percent.

Note: "Cities" in this table includes U.S. cities and towns with municipal or township governments.

Sources: Data on numbers and populations are from Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1974, table 420, "County, Municipal, and Township Governments, 1972, and Their Population, 1970, by Population Size Groups" (p. 262); and Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1995, table 473, "County, Municipal, and Township Governments, 1992" (p. 298). Both documents were published by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, in Census of Governments, Vol. 1, Governmental Organization.

Changes in Populations of Gang Cities

Changes in the numbers of gang localities were accompanied by changes in their populations. Table 4 compares the populations of gang cities in 1970 with those of 1995 and with city populations in the Nation as a whole. While the population of all U.S. cities increased 16 percent, from 178 to 207 million over the 25-year period, the population of gang cities increased by 65.9 million, or 177 percent. In addition, between 1970 and 1995, the population of gang cities rose from about 21 percent of all U.S. cities to almost 50 percent.

Note: "Cities" in this table includes U.S. cities and towns with municipal or township governments.

Sources: Data on numbers and populations are from Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1974, table 420, "County, Municipal, and Township Governments, 1972, and Their Population, 1970, by Population Size Groups" (p. 262), and Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1995, table 473, "County, Municipal and Township Governments, 1992" (p. 298). Both documents were published by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, in Census of Governments, Vol. 1, Governmental Organization.

The finding that the gang city population in 1995 rose from one-fifth to almost one-half of the all-city population documents a substantial increase in the proportion of the urban population experiencing youth gang problems.

Changes in Populations of Gang Counties

Table 5 shows that the population of all U.S. counties increased by 45 million (25 percent), between 1970 and 1995, while the population of gang counties rose by 111 million, (174 percent).¹¹ The change in the percentage of the U.S. county population reporting gang problems is even greater. In 1970, the population of gang counties included about 36 percent of the all-county population; by 1995, this figure had risen to 78 percent, a difference of 42 percent. This increase means that counties comprising about four-fifths of the total county population had reported gang problems by the end of 1995. The population affected by gang problems grew by about 175 percent for both cities and counties between the 1970's and the mid-1990's.

Note: "Counties" in this table includes U.S. county units with county governments. Numbers of counties are as of January 1972 and January 1992; populations are as of April 1970 and April 1990.

* County population figures based on governmental units are about 10 percent lower than the total county population reported by the U.S. Census. The census counts consolidated city-county governments as municipal rather than county governments.

Sources: Data on numbers and populations are from Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1974, table 420, "County, Municipal, and Township Govern-ments, 1972, and Their Population, 1970, by Population Size Groups" (p. 262), and Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1995, table 473, "County, Municipal, and Township Governments, 1992" (p. 298). Both documents were published by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, in Census of Governments, Vol. 1, Governmental Organization.

Locality Increases Compared

How does one evaluate the magnitude of the increases in gang localities? On the face of it, many of the changes seem very substantial, but a sounder method of evaluation needs comparable trend data against which presently reported trends can be measured. Unfortunately, few directly comparable sets of data are available. No studies of population trends for gang localities, either for cities or counties, have been reported. With respect to numbers of localities, no studies of counties based on national coverage have been reported.¹² Several studies have reported data on changes in number of gang cities, although none is directly comparable to those reported here.¹³ One study by Malcolm Klein (1995) uses methods that are sufficiently similar to provide a limited basis of comparison.

Klein uses four time periods, the latest ending in 1991, to measure changes in the number of gang cities. He reports 54 gang cities before 1961, 94 by 1970, 172 by 1980, and a cumulative total of 766 gang cities by the end of 1991. Cumulative percentage increases were 74 percent by 1970, 83 percent by 1980, and 345 percent by 1991 (Klein, 1995, pp. 90-91). These numbers compare with figures in this Report, showing 201 gang cities in the 1970's, 468 in the 1980's, and a cumulative total of 1,487 gang cities by the end of 1995. Cumulative percentage increases were 133 percent between the 1970's and 1980's, 218 percent between the 1980's and 1990's, and 640 percent during the 25-year period.

Another way of evaluating the magnitude of change is to compare the locality change trends reported in the present study with one another, as shown in table 6. This table displays two measures of change: the conventional "percent change" statistic (a-b)¸a and a second measure designated here as "magnitude of change." The second measure is based on the simple notion of "number of times," as in "the number of people sentenced to prison grew three times faster than the number of available prison cells." This figure is called "magnitude of change" or "magnitude of increase" in subsequent tables and figures. It is calculated simply by dividing the later figure by the earlier one. For example, since the number of gang States in the 1970's was 20 and rose to 50 in 1995, 50 is divided by 20 to produce the statement that the number of gang States increased 2.5 times.

* The types of gang locality are ranked by magnitude of change, which is the number of gang localities in 1995 divided by the number of gang localities in the 1970's.

Table 6 shows both the percentage of change and the magnitude of change for each of eight locality categories. Tables 3 and 4 show that the number of gang cities increased 7.5 times and the number of gang counties increased 10 times during the 25-year period. These increases are sizable, but gang city increases in the Midwest, South, and South Atlantic regions are even larger.

The largest increase is shown by cities in the seven States of the South Atlantic region (see figure 15), with a phenomenal increase of 44 times over the 25-year period. This reflects the emergence of the Old South as the region with the most rapid growth of youth gang localities, a phenomenon discussed further in the chapter entitled "Regional Trends in Gang Cities."

Figure 7 displays these results in graphic form, with the degree of change indicated by the "magnitude of change" statistic.

* The magnitude of change is the number of gang localities in 1995 divided by the number of gang localities in 1970.

Cities That Reported Gang Problems in the 1970's But Not in the 1990's

Given the fact that localities with gang problems showed continuous and substantial growth in most U.S. localities between 1970 and the mid-1990's, it is noteworthy that a small minority—7 percent—of the cities that reported gang problems in the 1970's reported the absence of such problems 25 years later. Table 7 lists these 13 cities, located in 5 States. This small group of cities has unusual value because it provides an opportunity to explore the reasons for the absence of gang problems in localities that had previously reported their presence. This issue is discussed further in the "Summaries and Explanations" chapter.

Note: Data for the 1990's cover the period 1990-95.