ONDCP Seal
 PolicyPolicy
III. Goals, Objectives, Targets, andPerformance Measures of Effectiveness
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Targets

The ONDCP Reauthorization Act of 1998 stipulates that the Strategy will include specific targets that the ONDCP Director determines may be achieved in future years. The Act specifies the inclusion of thefollowing specific targets:

  • Reduction of unlawful drug use to 3 percent or less of the U.S. population by December 31, 2003 (as measured in terms of overall illicit drug use during the past thirty days by National Household Survey on Drug Abuse (NHSDA)) and achievement of at least 20 percent of such reduction during 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, and 2003, respectively.

  • Reduction of unlawful adolescent drug use (as measured in terms of illicit drug use during the past thirty days by the Monitoring the Future (MTF) study of the University of Michigan or the National PRIDE survey conducted by the Parents' Resource Institute for Drug Education) to 3 percent or less of the U.S. adolescent population by December 31, 2003, and achievement of at least 20 percent of such reduction during 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, and 2003, respectively.

  • Reduction of cocaine, heroin, marijuana, and methamphetamine availability in the United States by 80 percent by December 31, 2003.

  • Reduction of the nationwide average street purity levels for cocaine, heroin, marijuana, and methamphetamine (as estimated by the interagency drug-flow assessment process, the Drug Enforcement Administration, and other national drug-control program agencies) by 60 percent by December 31, 2003, and achievement of at least 20 percent of such reduction during 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, and 2003, respectively.

  • Reduction of drug-related crime in the United States by 50 percent by December 31, 2003, and achievement of at least 20 percent of such reduction during 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, and 2003, respectively, including the following:

  • Reduction of state and federal unlawful drug trafficking and distribution.

  • Reduction of state and federal crimes committed by persons under the influence of unlawful drugs.

  • Reduction of state and federal crimes committed for the purpose of obtaining unlawful drugs or obtaining property that is intended to be used for the purchase of unlawful drugs.

  • Reduction of drug-related emergency room incidents in the United States (as measured by the Drug Abuse Warning Network), including incidents involving gunshot wounds and automobile accidents in which illicit drugs are identified in the bloodstream of the victim, by 50 percent by December 31, 2003.

Congress believes these targets are important to the reduction of overall drug use in the United States, and that the Strategy should seek to achieve them. Accordingly, this Strategy lists ninety-seven specific, quantifiable, and measurable targets for 2002 and 2007. Collectively, they will orient a national effort that can reduce illegal drug use and availability by 50 percent over the next eight years and the consequences of drug abuse by at least 25 percent. The twelve impact targets follow.

Demand Reduction

  1. Reduce the overall prevalence of illicit drug use by 25 percent by 2002 and by 50 percent by 2007 (compared with the base year -- 1996). In 1996 the past-month (i.e., current) rate of drug use in the United States was 6.1 percent. A 50 percent reduction would yield a national drug-use rate of 3 percent. This rate would be the lowest recorded since the federal government began systematically tracking such data.

  2. Reduce the prevalence of illicit drug and alcohol use among youth 20 percent by 2002 and 50 percent by 2007. Reduce the prevalence of tobacco consumption among youth 25 percent by 2002 and 55 percent by 2007 (compared with the base year -- 1996). In 1996 the prevalence of drug use in the twelve to seventeen-year-old population was 9 percent. The 50 percent reduction from the 1996 prevalence rate will produce a 4.5 percent rate in 2007. Achieving these critical targets will allow the nation's sixty-eight million young to fulfill their potential as healthy, productive members of society.

  3. Increase the average age of first-time drug use by twelve months by 2002 and thirty-six months by 2007 (compared with the base year -- 1996). In 1996 the mean age for first-time use of marijuana 16.4 years. Research establishes that individuals who do not use alcohol, tobacco products, or psychoactive substances during adolescence have a greatly reduced likelihood of ever developing substance-abuse problems. Delaying the initial use of illicit substances and illegal drugs by thirty-six months will reduce substantially the number of individuals who have lasting substance-abuse or chemical-dependency problems.

  4. Reduce the prevalence of drug use in the workplace by 25 percent by 2002 and 50 percent by 2007 (compared with the base year -- 1996). In 1996 there were approximately 6.1 million employed drug users. Workplace-based drug prevention and education programs can contribute to a reduction in the number of drug users and improve the health, safety, and productivity of the American workforce. Attainment of this target will reduce that number by three million.

  5. Reduce the number of chronic drug users by 20 percent by 2002 and 50 percent by 2007 (compared with the base year -- 1996). Chronic drug users consume the vast majority of the available cocaine, heroin, and methamphetamine in the United States. The estimated 3.6 million chronic cocaine users and 810,000 chronic heroin users place enormous burdens on our society in the form of health and social costs. Reducing theirnumbers by one half will curtail significantly the associated criminal and health consequences of drug abuse and reduce overall consumption by approximately one third.

Supply Reduction

  1. Reduce the domestic availability of illegal drugs by 25 percent by 2002 and 50 percent by 2007 (compared with the base year -- 1996). Availability is estimated indirectly. Variations in wholesale and retail prices and purities of drugs are indirect and often inaccurate estimates of availability as a result of their dependence on both supply and demand. Reduced supply, for example, would result in higher prices and lower purity levels were demand to remain constant. Conversely, reduced demand and constant supply would result in lower prices and higher purity levels. Accurate measures of drug-crop cultivation and potential production allow the modeling of drug flows and the computation of macro estimates of availability.

  2. Reduce the rate of shipment of illegal drugs from source countries by 15 percent by 2002 and 30 percent by 2007 (compared with the base year -- 1996). In 1996 South America potential cocaine production was 760 metric tons. In 1997 that figure dropped to 650 metric tons.

  3. Reduce the rate at which illegal drugs enter the United States by 10 percent by 2002 and 20 percent by 2007 (compared with the base year -- 1996). The Interagency Assessment of Cocaine Movement, published semiannually, provides an official estimate of cocaine flow through the transit and arrival zones. ONDCP is leading an interagency effort to develop estimates for heroin, marijuana, and other illegal drugs.

  4. Reduce the production of methamphetamine and cultivation of marijuana in the United States by 20 percent by 2002 and 50 percent by 2007 (compared with the base year -- 1996). There is currently no national estimate of marijuana cultivation or methamphetamine production. Congress has directed that the Department of Agriculture conduct annual estimates of domestic drug-crop cultivation in order to track progress towards this target. ONDCP will coordinate the development of official estimates for the domestic availability of both these drugs.

  5. Reduce trafficker success rate in the United States. Reduce by 10 percent the rate at which illicit drugs of U.S. venue reach the U.S. consumer by 2002 and 20 percent by 2007 (Compared with the base year --1996). There is currently no estimate of trafficker success at the national, regional, or local levels.

Consequences

  1. Reduce crime associated with drug trafficking and use by 15 percent by 2002 and 30 percent by 2007 (compared with the base year -- 1996). Drug-related crime is not limited to highly publicized violent acts. Drug abuse is also linked to corruption, prostitution, trafficking, possession, money laundering, forgery and counterfeiting, embezzlement, and weapons violations. In 1996 the rate of arrest for drug law violations was 594 per 100,000. Reducing drug-related crime will increase significantly the safety of our nation's streets.

  2. Reduce the health and social costs associated with drug trafficking and use by 10 percent by 2002 and 25 percent by 2007 (compared with the base year -- 1996). Drug abusers engage in high-risk behavior, making them and their associates susceptible to a range of diseases like tuberculosis, HIV, and hepatitis. Drug use contributes to birth defects and infant mortality, facilitates the spread of infectious diseases, undermines workplace safety, and leads to premature death. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), 1,919 cases of tuberculosis that were reported in 1996 were related to drug use (11.5 percent of all cases).

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1999 National Drug Control Strategy Office of National Drug Control Policy