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Perceptual Change in the National Youth Survey: Lessons for Deterrence Theory and Offender Decision-Making

NCJ Number
209068
Journal
Justice Quarterly Volume: 22 Issue: 1 Dated: March 2005 Pages: 1-29
Author(s)
Greg Pogarsky; KiDeuk Kim; Ray Paternoster
Date Published
March 2005
Length
29 pages
Annotation
This study investigated changes in perceptions about sanction risks over successive waves of the National Youth Survey (NYS) and proposed and tested a theoretical framework in which perceptions about the certainty of punishment changed based on the offending experiences of the actor and others, and based on the consequences from these experiences.
Abstract
Most deterrence research has investigated how perceptions about sanction threats influence decisions to offend. This study proposed a theoretical framework for the modification of sanction risk perceptions and tested its empirical implications with data from the National Youth Survey (NYS). The NYS is a longitudinal study of delinquency, substance abuse, and other problem behaviors using a nationally representative sample of American adolescents between 11 and 17 years of age in 1976. Two factors were tested on how they moderate the process of perceptual change: whether the respondent is a naïve or experienced offender and their level of moral inhibition. It was hypothesized that moral inhibition would reduce the degree to which offending and any consequences would affect perceptions of sanction certainty. Study findings include: (1) arrests had no effect on perceptions of sanction certainty for either stealing or attacking; (2) peer offending corresponded with reductions in perceived certainty for stealing, but not for attacking; (3) prior offending experience did not diminish, and if anything, enhanced the effects of offending experiences on perceived risks; and (4) moral inhibition reduced the degree to which offending experiences affected sanction risk perceptions. These findings assist in the formation of risk perceptions and for identifying additional issues in need of further research. References