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  NCJ Number: NCJ 215456     Find in a Library
  Title: Preparing for the Future: Criminal Justice in 2040
  Document URL: HTML 
  Author(s): Nancy M. Ritter
  Journal: National Institute of Justice Journal  Issue:255  Dated:November 2006  Pages:8 to 11
  Date Published: 11/2006
  Page Count: 4
  Series: NIJ Journal
  Annotation: Three leading criminal justice experts--Bryan J. Vila, Christopher Stone, and David Weisburd--discuss which forces will influence the characteristics of criminal justice in 2040 and to what degree.
  Abstract: Bryan Vila advises that crime will continue to change as opportunities for various types of crime change, which will be influenced by technological and law enforcement countermeasures for specific crime types. Vila also mentions demographic changes, including a slight decline in the number of males in the crime-prone age and an increase in the elderly population, which could provide more vulnerable victims for crime. Chris Stone predicts that global trends will have a significant role in how criminal justice is delivered throughout the world in 2040. The growing diversity in national populations poses potential for cultural clashes, conflicting values, the marginalization of minorities, and social instability. These factors present a high risk for increasing antisocial and criminal behavior. Stone also notes prospects for a new professional culture in the justice system across five arenas: bilateral transfer of information between countries, multilateral innovation, global dissemination of justice products, media global influence on public perceptions of criminal justice, and the role of evaluation research in determining criminal justice decisionmaking. David Weisburd believes that the nature of criminal justice in 2040 will depend largely on the primary research methodology. The competition will be between reliance on the experiences and opinions of practitioners (the clinical experience model) and research that tests programs and measures outcomes (the evidence-based model). Weisburd proposes making the evidence-based model "more realistic" by streamlining the process of developing evidence and conducting evaluation, building an infrastructure that provides guidance for what research is conducted, devising more efficient procedures for conducting research, and reinforcing a professional climate that relies on empirical data for planning and decisionmaking.
  Main Term(s): Criminology
  Index Term(s): Technology transfer ; Information Systems and Technology ; Science and Technology ; Evaluative research ; Trend analysis ; Information dissemination ; Crime patterns ; Criminal justice system analysis ; Demographic analysis of crime ; NIJ grant-related documents
  Type: Historical Overview
  Country: United States of America
  Language: English
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