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NCJ Number: NCJ 231282     Find in a Library
Title: Determinants of Chicago Neighborhood Homicide Trajectories: 1965-1995
  Document URL: PDF 
  Dataset URL: DATASET 1
Author(s): Brian J. Stults
  Journal: Homicide Studies  Volume:14  Issue:3  Dated:August 2010  Pages:244 to 267
Date Published: 08/2010
Page Count: 24
  Annotation: This study examined the determinants in homicide trajectories in Chicago between 1965 and 1995.
Abstract: The homicide rate in Chicago nearly tripled between 1965 and 1992 and subsequently declined by more than 50 percent through 2005. However, is this trend representative of all areas in the city? Drawing on the social disorganization and concentrated disadvantage perspectives, this article uses semiparametric group-based trajectory modeling to examine homicide trajectories in Chicago neighborhoods from 1965 to 1995. Significant variability is found in homicide trajectories across neighborhoods. Multivariate results show that disadvantage increases the likelihood of having an increasing or persistently high homicide trajectory. Social disorganization and family disruption are also predictive of variation in homicide trajectories but only in communities with already low levels of homicide. Other theoretically relevant predictors are evaluated, and suggestions for theoretical refinement and future research are discussed. Tables, figures, appendixes, and references (Published Abstract)
Main Term(s): Homicide
Index Term(s): Murder ; Crime patterns ; Homicide causes ; Homicide trends ; NIJ grant-related documents
Sponsoring Agency: National Institute of Justice (NIJ)
US Department of Justice
Office of Justice Programs
United States of America
Grant Number: 2008-IJ-CX-0019
Publisher URL: 
Type: Report (Study/Research)
Country: United States of America
Language: English
Note: Special issue on "Structural Covariates of Homicide Rates: A Return to a Classic" for additional articles see NCJ-231280-81 and NCJ-231283-85.
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