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Evidence that High Crime Rate Encourage Migration Away From Central Cities

NCJ Number
102702
Journal
Sociology and Social Research Volume: 70 Issue: 4 Dated: (July 1986) Pages: 310-314
Author(s)
R J Sampson; J D Wooldredge
Date Published
1986
Length
5 pages
Annotation
Crime rates made a significant contribution to migration away from many central cities during the 1970's.
Abstract
The leveling off of crime rates in the 1980's may therefore result in renewed movement to large urban areas. Study data came from all 55 United States cities with populations of 250,000 or more in 1970. The study used both census data and officially recorded crime date for both 1970 and 1980. The multiple regression analysis considered the effects of northern location, tax rates, age, employment, racial composition, and manufacturing base. Findings show that crime had a negative effect on both net migration and population change for both black and white populations. Crime was the strongest predictor of outward migration, and northern location also had a significant negative effect. Crime rates were also positively related to increases in the poverty levels of both the white and black populations. Further analyses using a simultaneous model of contemporaneous change suggested the existence of time lag before the crime rate influences migration. Taxes had a significant positive effect on net migration, indicating that people will pay more for desired services and cultural opportunities. Figure, tables, 13 references.

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