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Size of the 'Criminal Population:' The Prevalence and Incidence of Adult Arrest

NCJ Number
108522
Journal
Criminology Volume: 25 Issue: 3 Dated: (August 1987) Pages: 561-579
Author(s)
R Tillman
Date Published
1987
Length
19 pages
Annotation
This study used 1974-1985 longitudinal criminal history data for a California cohort born in 1956 to estimate the prevalence of arrest (defined as the proportion of the population ever arrested) and the incidence of arrest (defined as the number of arrests incurred by those ever arrested) for the 18 to 29-year-old age group.
Abstract
Results show that being arrested is a relatively common experience for this population: nearly 25 percent of the entire cohort and 33 percent of the males in the cohort were arrested at least once. One of six males and two of five black males were arrested for an Index offense. The data on incidence reveal the presence of a subset of chronic offenders who were responsible for a disproportionate disposition number of arrests. However, defined in terms of three or more arrests for any offense, their numbers are smaller. Data suggest that it may be difficult to distinguish chronic offenders from one-time offenders, because 60 percent do not recidivate. These findings suggest that the current preoccupation with chronic offenders may obscure broader social structural factors that cause very large segments of the population to come into conflict with the law. 1 table, 4 figures, and 24 references. (Author abstract modified)

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