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Short-Term Trends in Crime and Delinquency: A Comparison of UCR (Uniform Crime Reports), NCS (National Crime Survey), and Self-Report Data

NCJ Number
109340
Journal
Justice Quarterly Volume: 4 Issue: 3 Dated: (September 1987) Pages: 455-474
Author(s)
S Menard
Date Published
1987
Length
20 pages
Annotation
This study examines short-term (5- to 10-year) trends in crime and juvenile delinquency, using FBI Uniform Crime Reports data on arrests and offenses known to the police, National Crime Survey data on victimization, and National Youth Survey data on self-reported delinquency.
Abstract
The focus in on FBI index offenses, but less serious offenses also are considered. FBI statistics indicate generally increasing rates of crime, while NCS and NYS data indicate stable and occasionally decreasing rates. Data on the self-reported incidence of delinquency are more compatible with arrest data than are data on the self-reported prevalence of delinquency, but the two self-report measures are more compatible with one another than with arrest data. Attempts to reconcile official statistics with victimization surveys and self-report studies seem unlikely to overcome the differences among the sources when trends in crime, rather than rates of crime at a single time, are considered. (Publisher abstract)