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Longitudinal Analysis of Neighborhood Delinquency Rates

NCJ Number
111455
Author(s)
R J Bursik
Date Published
Unknown
Length
9 pages
Annotation
This paper discusses an analysis of Chicago neighborhoods and the effect of ecological composition on delinquency rates.
Abstract
The changes in the relative distribution of delinquency that occurred in the 74 local community areas of Chicago between 1930 and 1970 were examined. Five indicators of the ecological composition of these neighborhoods were chosen: (1) the change during successive 10-year periods in the percent nonwhite, (2) the percent foreign-born white, (3) the percent of males who were unemployed, (4) the percent of dwelling units that were owner occupied, and (5) the percent of households with more than one person per room. During the 1930-1940 period, only 15 percent of the variation in delinquency rates could be attributed to a local community's changing role in the ecological system. However, during the 1940-1950 period, due to a change in residential settlement (black housing shortage, black immigration, and economic gains by blacks), there was a change in delinquency rates in the neighborhoods. This pattern became even more pronounced during the 1950-1960 period. During the final period of 1960-1970, many of the neighborhoods previously characterized by rapid change were beginning the process of entrenchment as new social networks were formed and strengthened. The stability of an area and the changes in its household status were strongly related to subsequent changes in an area's delinquency rate.