U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government, Department of Justice.

NCJRS Virtual Library

The Virtual Library houses over 235,000 criminal justice resources, including all known OJP works.
Click here to search the NCJRS Virtual Library

Recidivism Prediction: A Duel Between the Belly Button and the Computer

NCJ Number
113355
Author(s)
G W Knox; B Lundin
Date Published
Unknown
Length
16 pages
Annotation
This study reports on qualitative and quantitative methods for predicting recidivism. It is based on interviews with over 100 Felons in a community-based employment program at Chicago's Safer Foundation.
Abstract
Both adult and juvenile felons were interviewed. During the interviews both qualitative and quantitative methods were tested in tandem. The qualitative method consisted of a 5-minute oral interview carried out by one of the authors who has 23 years of experience as a police officer. His predictions were communicated to a third party who was not part of the research team. The quantitative method made use of a 2-page survey questionnaire read and responded to in writing by the felons. The questionnaire contained 23 questions: 10 tested self-esteem, the remainder dealt with the offender's social network, relations with family and friends, arrest and employment records, drug use, and job expectations. The qualitative method was found to be more effective in predicting recidivism, thus illustrating the importance of police experience. 28 references. (Author abstract modified)