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Probationer Recidivism in North Carolina: Measurement and Classification of Risk

NCJ Number
114367
Author(s)
S H Clarke; Y H W Lin; W L Wallace
Date Published
1988
Length
35 pages
Annotation
This study measured and analyzed recidivism of North Carolina adult probationers to see whether risk classification methods could be improved using data already available to State correctional and law enforcement agencies.
Abstract
The sample consisted of 21,789 probationers released on probation between February 1, 1982 through January 31, 1983 who were followed up for an average of 3 years. Of this group, 64 percent neither were re-arrested nor had their parole revoked. This study described the Department of Corrections' (DOC) classification system which assigns probationers to one of four supervision levels based on risk and needs scores adopted from Wisconsin's classification system. Statistical models developed in the study to predict probationers' recidivism are explained. The most accurate predictive model included prior fingerprinted arrests, sex, age, when probation began, age at first conviction, employment history, whether the probationer had alcohol problems, and whether friends negatively influenced the probationer. The authors state their opinion on the purpose of probation, propose a new definition of recidivism, and compare four classification procedures. They conclude that classification procedures based on statistical models are better than the present DOC system. Tables and graphs. (Author summary modified)