To gain insight into the drug problem, interviews and a public survey were conducted, and a nominal group technique was used to scan literature and brainstorm to formulate trends and events affecting the issue. The trends identified were increasing level of government budget/expenditures, increased drug use by the general population, increasing health care costs, increasing acceptance of the social use of drugs, and increased employer recognition of employee drug abuse problems. The study predicts a cure for AIDS, a health care system overloaded with drug-related illnesses, a major financial recession, mandatory drug testing, and the death penalty for drug dealers. Using a cross-impact model, the interrelationships between the trends and events were analyzed to determine their impact on drug law decriminalization. Based on these impacts, three future scenarios were predicted, and the Modified Policy Delphi process was used to develop a strategic management plan. The strategic policy consists of the legalization of marijuana, the gradual introduction of the decriminalization of cocaine, escalated enforcement of criminalized drug laws, extensive antidrug education campaign, political lobbying to assist in achieving the strategic policy, medicalization of heroin for existing users, and the availability of sterile syringes to prevent transmission of infectious diseases. A transition management plan was developed to implement the strategic policy. Appended supplementary information, 12 references, 14-item bibliography. (Author summary modified)