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Population Projections

NCJ Number
121904
Date Published
1990
Length
157 pages
Annotation
This examination of the current crowding problems in Illinois prisons notes that the prison population is growing at its fastest rate in history and will add 7,000 inmates in the next 2.5 years.
Abstract
The Department of Corrections uses a computer simulation model to predict inmate population. Past forecasts have proven to be extremely accurate. However, prison populations increased more than predicted between 1988 and 1989. Further analysis showed that the increasing numbers of inmates convicted for drug offenses are the main source of the increase. The crowding makes large-scale violence increasingly likely and also makes it difficult to provide legally-mandated services. Thus, court intervention to the system is a real possibility. The analysis shows that building more prison space is not the solution to the growth in the prison population. Instead, some combination of new construction and other population control strategies must be found soon. Figures and data tables.