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Is It Possible To Predict?

NCJ Number
123397
Journal
Apropa Volume: 12 Issue: 1 Dated: (1986) Pages: 25-31
Author(s)
J Sarnecki
Date Published
1986
Length
7 pages
Annotation
Although predicting whether an individual juvenile will become a drug abuser is impossible, empirical data indicate that identifying groups at high risk is possible. This conclusion should be taken into account when prevention policies are constructed and resources targeted.
Abstract
In Sweden many are urging action to address drug abuse. However, action should be preceded by a careful analysis of the problem. Preliminary analysis of data from Stockholm indicate that when 15 risk factors are used to categorize data on 10,000 youthful males, a clear group at high risk emerges. This group consists of youths with 10 or more risk factors. A total of 154 among such a group of 356 high-risk individuals became substance abusers, compared with 38 of a middle risk group totaling 1,744 individuals and 9 in a group of 7,900 low-risk individuals. Research also shows a strong correlation between poor school adjustment and poor social skills and later substance abuse. These kinds of facts must be used in developing successful prevention approaches. Photograph, table, and 6 references