NCJ Number
126176
Date Published
1989
Length
56 pages
Annotation
By applying time series regression analysis techniques to data collected from the Indian Ministry of Home Affairs annual crime statistics, this study projects the total IPC cognizable crime, including violent crimes, in India by the end of the century. The two primary limitations of the study are its assumption that other parameters will remain constant and its dependence on official data which could be incomplete or inaccurate.
Abstract
Mathematical models, which describe the behavior of observed past values, are used to forecast future trends by graphing the time series, by resolving irregular variations using the moving average method, by examining various mathematical functions for data descriptions, by checking the models through chi square and mean absolute percentage error tests, and by forecasting and extrapolating from trend curves. According to the projections, the total crime rate in India in 2000 A.D. will increase to nearly 28 lakhs, the crime rate per lakh of population will increase to 284, and violent crime to 4.5 lakhs. The similarities and divergences between the manual computations done in this study and a computer analysis are discussed. The projections depend on the extent and type of change that occurs at the socioeconomic level as well as to the planning done by the criminal justice and law enforcement systems. 28 tables and 10 figures