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Predicting Criminal Activity of Juvenile Germans and Foreigners

NCJ Number
126716
Author(s)
B Loll
Date Published
1990
Length
271 pages
Annotation
The book describes two 1981 studies predicting the criminal activities of juvenile foreigners and West Germans for 1984 to 1988 and evaluates the results in light of the actual suspect statistics for these years.
Abstract
To predict the number of foreign juvenile suspects per 100,000 foreign juveniles in West Germany, the authors used data from 1972 to 1981: suspect statistics, population statistics, school attendance, length of stay, employment status, ratio of white-collar to blue-collar workers, and concentration of foreigners in a particular location. To establish a similar ratio for West German juveniles, the study analyzed suspect statistics, employment records, divorce rates, school records, income records, and welfare records. Statistical multivariant analysis indicated that the number of juvenile suspects per 100,000 juveniles would rise for all juveniles including foreigners. However, the number of juveniles among all German suspects was expected to decrease by about 30 percent as the overall juvenile population of Germany decreases in the 1980's. At the same time, the percentage of foreign suspects among juvenile suspects was predicted to increase dramatically as the number of foreign juveniles continues to increase through the 1980's. A comparison between the prediction and the actual suspect statistics indicates that the trends were predicted accurately though considerable numerical differences existed. The predictions concerning foreign juveniles seemed especially inadequate as this group is so heterogeneous. Although it would be desirable to study foreign subgroups such as the children of foreign workers in Germany or juvenile asylum seekers, the statistics for such a project are not available. Statistical charts are included.