U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government, Department of Justice.

NCJRS Virtual Library

The Virtual Library houses over 235,000 criminal justice resources, including all known OJP works.
Click here to search the NCJRS Virtual Library

Philadelphia Birth Cohort and Selective Incapacitation

NCJ Number
127921
Journal
Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency Volume: 28 Issue: 1 Dated: (February 1991) Pages: 33-54
Author(s)
T J Bernard; R R Ritti
Date Published
1991
Length
22 pages
Annotation
Birth cohort data from a 1972 study is analyzed to determine marginal benefits and marginal costs if nine hypothetical incapacitation policies had been in effect at the time.
Abstract
To determine possible crime reduction effects of incapacitation, the data was examined on a case-by-case basis, and a methodology suited to the ambiguities in the data was developed. Marginal benefits were measured by the actual number of police contacts and serious adjudications that occurred, and marginal costs were measured in terms of the incarceration rate maintained by the policy. It was concluded that there is no evidence in the study to support the argument that selective incapacitation is a practical strategy for crime reduction. This analysis calls attention to the danger that sophisticated statistical analysis will obscure rather than reveal the reality behind the data, especially when researchers ignore the organizational settings in which the data were collected. 6 tables, 7 notes, and 36 references (Author abstract modified)