Subjects of the study are the 1,949 male members of a randomly selected cohort of youths released to parole by the California Department of Youth Authority between July 1, 1981, and June 30, 1982. Subject characteristics in the cohort data pertain to criminal history, current commitment, substance abuse, school problems, family background, and environment. Analysis indicates that the early failures tended to be arrested for the first time at an early age, had more extensive criminal histories, and had the worst records of behavior during their current commitment. They were also more likely to have had serious gang involvement and school disciplinary problems. They were more likely to come from backgrounds with poor parenting and to have siblings with criminal records. The study develops a predictive model having a score function that credibly assesses a subject's rearrest risk. The potential benefits and costs of model applications are discussed. Extensive tables, figures, and 40 references