A computer simulated model for projecting Louisiana's secure care population through 1995 indicates the State would have to accommodate an 8-percent increase in that population by building 300 new beds at a cost of 33 million dollars. However, if modest legislative policy changes, particularly public safety oriented risk assessment systems, are implemented the State could save several hundred beds and would not have to build new facilities. This would allow some secure care facilities to be closed and would free millions of dollars for new community corrections placement and intensive after care services. The application of such a public safety risk assessment instrument to Louisiana juvenile offenders revealed that substantial numbers of youths could safely be managed in well-run community programs. The risk assessment technology together with accurate population forecasting and a review of existing community programs can lead toward a more effective juvenile correctional system. 6 figures and 1 endnote