Study data are from the first and third waves of a 5-year longitudinal study of rural adolescent psychological, social, and cognitive development. Participants came from three consecutive grades in a single rural school district. The initial sample was composed of 657 seventh, eighth, and ninth grade students. In this study only those with data from the first and third waves were included (463). The study found that family relations, family structure, school marks, participation in academic activities, frequency of church attendance, and deviant behavior were significantly associated with alcohol use 2 years later. No gender or age differences were found in these predictors of alcohol use. These six risk variables were combined to form a risk index. A 3 x 2 x 2 (User group by gender by grade) ANOVA was used to examine the association between the risk index score at year 1 and level of alcohol use at year 3. Only the main effect of user group was significant. Thus, the number of risk factors at year 1 was predictive of alcohol use at year 3. The risk index also predicted frequency of a alcohol use in a replication sample. Implications for the risk factor approach, prevention, and intervention are discussed. 3 tables and 55 references.