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Social Indicators and Crime Rate Forecasting

NCJ Number
134285
Journal
Social Indicators Research Volume: 22 Dated: (1990) Pages: 83-96
Author(s)
A Rattner
Date Published
1990
Length
14 pages
Annotation
Macrodynamic social indicators are used in a time series analysis of three crime categories: homicide; property; and robbery offenses in Israel.
Abstract
Results confirm earlier findings on the relationship between unemployment and violent crime and clearly demonstrate that rate of homicide tends to increase as rates of unemployment go up. Findings also exhibit a positive relationship between density of population and the two categories of property crime: breaking and entering and robbery offenses. Another variable that has demonstrated a positive effect on the rate of property offenses is the age structure. The typical shape of the age distribution of criminal behavior is said to show a peak in the mid to late teens and declines thereafter. This is particularly so with regard to property offenses. When the categories of homicide and robbery are examined, findings show that the existence of a complex social learning and diffusion process has an effect on the transmission and persistence of certain criminal behaviors. 2 tables, 1 note, and bibliography