NCJ Number
135863
Date Published
1991
Length
30 pages
Annotation
Data supplied by the Drug Enforcement Administration and the National Institute on Drug Abuse were used to construct this dynamic simulation model that replicates the behavior of the cocaine system in the U.S. This method of system dynamics uses expert opinion to identify the critical factors the influence the behavior of the system.
Abstract
The model establishes the relationship of cocaine imports to their street price, purity, and user population. The key to the model design is the concept that the behavior of the cocaine system is affected most by how much cocaine is available at any time relative to the population of 12 to 34 year olds. This ratio, referred to as the Relative Abundance Measure, indicates the surplus, adequacy, or shortage of the cocaine supply at any time. This in turn influences cocaine price, purity, and the number of cocaine users. As the model demonstrates, the purity of the cocaine consumed and the number of users both increase and decrease as the Relative Abundance Measure shifts; total consumption is affected by the number of users and the purity of cocaine they buy. 3 tables, 12 figures, 11 references, and 1 appendix