NCJ Number
139873
Journal
Criminology Volume: 30 Issue: 3 Dated: (August 1992) Pages: 377-395
Date Published
1992
Length
19 pages
Annotation
Recent arguments in research on individual-level deterrence suggest that the effect of perceived sanction risk on illegal behavior may occur over a shorter time period than yearly lags typically incorporated in panel studies, and this study raises the same issue for macrolevel deterrence research by suggesting that panel studies using yearly data may have failed to capture the deterrent effect.
Abstract
The analysis uses ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) models, with data aggregated monthly, quarterly, and semiannually to estimate reciprocal effects between arrests and crimes for robbery, burglary, larceny, and auto theft in Oklahoma City from 1967 through 1989. Findings do not indicate an effect of crimes on arrests, although significant effects of arrests on crimes appear for three of the four offenses in shorter temporal aggregations. These results suggest the need to reconsider conclusions based on panel studies that have used time aggregations and time lags that may be too long to uncover deterrent effects. Ultimately, deterrence must be examined in appropriate spatial and temporal aggregates over appropriate time lags for meaningful behavior categories. 53 references and 2 tables