Four key trends selected as relating to this study issue included number of youths living in poverty, amount of government spending on social programs, rates of juvenile alcohol and drug abuse, and use of community policing. In addition, four probable events were selected for incorporation into the analysis: Federal war on poverty program funded, children's budget enacted in California, comprehensive school system reforms adopted, and military spending significantly reduced. Of the three scenarios emerging from this analysis, the normative one proposes adoption of a policy which would develop a juvenile diversion program, institute an interagency effort to provide intensive and coordinated youth services, create community awareness of the plight of disadvantaged youth, develop a community policing strategy, and obtain additional funding for law enforcement youth programs. The study includes strategic and transition management plans to achieve these goals. 8 tables, 15 figures, 104 notes, 114 references, and 3 appendixes