U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government, Department of Justice.

NCJRS Virtual Library

The Virtual Library houses over 235,000 criminal justice resources, including all known OJP works.
Click here to search the NCJRS Virtual Library

Twenty Years of Operational Use of a Risk Prediction Instrument: The United States Parole Commission's Salient Factor Score

NCJ Number
153179
Journal
Journal of Criminal Justice Volume: 22 Issue: 6 Dated: (1994) Pages: 477-494
Author(s)
P B Hoffman
Date Published
1994
Length
18 pages
Annotation
For the past 20 years, the U.S. Parole Commission has used an empirically developed recidivism prediction instrument, the Salient Factor Score, as part of a system of explicit parole decision making guidelines.
Abstract
The most recent version of the Salient Factor Score (SFS 81) has been in use since August 1981. The parole guidelines are predicated upon good institutional conduct. Disciplinary infractions may result in a later release date, while an inmate's superior program achievement in the institution may lead to an earlier release date. The guidelines clearly structure the U.S. Parole Commission's exercise of discretion in parole decision making. SFS 81 was the third revision of the score since it was originally implemented; the revisions have generally reduced the number of items in the instrument, improved score reliability, and reduced the number of noncriminal history status items. Validation studies have been conducted using large samples of inmates released in 1970-1972, 1978, and 1987. Follow-up information is obtained from rap sheet records maintained by the Federal Bureau of Investigation; a uniform 3-year follow-up period for each case from date of release is used. Results from the most recent validation study show that the SFS 81 retained predictive accuracy over the 17-year period in which the three samples were released and is able to separate prisoners into categories based on their risk of reoffending. 2 tables, 14 notes, and 34 references