Data from four successive yearly cohorts and one special early release cohort of parolees were used for this study. Given earlier broadly constructed research and the conclusion based thereon that variation in shifting policies would have different effects on different types of offenses, the authors decided to sharpen the focus of the research questions posed by concentrating on recidivism patterns among property offenders. The authors examined three alternative explanations -- compositional effects, administrative discretion, and deterrence -- to interpret the differences found across cohorts. While suggestive, these alternative explanations remain open to question given the limitations inherent in quasi-experimental research. Conclusions related to issues of prison construction policy suggest that more attention be paid to the replacement factor, whereby vacancies left by incarcerated offenders are rapidly filled by others. If future research supports the rapid replacement hypothesis, increased levels of incarceration will yield a larger, more experienced class of criminals and, ironically, a heightened collective potential for crime. Footnotes, figures, references