The changes proposed by the Home Secretary would involve automatic life sentences on a second conviction for a serious violent or sexual offense, minimum sentences for repeat burglars and drug dealers, and the virtual elimination of early release mechanisms such as automatic conditional release or discretionary parole. The Penal Affairs Consortium views these proposals as riddled with injustice while doing nothing to reduce crime and in some respects are likely to increase it. By focusing on increasing the number of offenders imprisoned and for longer periods, the proposals will increase the prison population significantly. Although this dramatic increase in the prison population may have some "containment" effect, research shows that a 25-percent increase in the prison population would be needed to reduce crime by 1 percent; on this basis, the containment effect of the Home Secretary's proposals could reduce crime by approximately 2 percent. On the other hand, the proposals are likely to increase crime by abolishing parole and certain other forms of supervision on release that markedly reduce offending by ex-inmates. The proposals will also prevent judges from choosing the sentence most likely to divert the individual offender from further offending. Further, they will reduce incentives to plead guilty, thereby increasing the risk of wrongful acquittals of dangerous offenders. By ending inmates' incentive for good behavior in prison through the elimination of early release, violent acts in prison are likely to increase. The large increase in expenditures on prisons required by these proposals is likely to be at the expense of other forms of social expenditure that contribute to the prevention of crime.