This revision proposes an additional 4,000 beds to be constructed by the Texas Department of Criminal Justice (TDCJ) under the most recent construction authorization, bringing the total number of new beds from 8,000 estimated in September 1995 to 12,000 currently estimated. It also advises a lower parole revocation rate since September 1995 and the expected stabilization of this rate at levels lower than estimated during the last projection. The revision also predicts a stabilization in the number of new convictions to prison as a result of the lower crime rate. Another proposal is the transfer of an additional 500-bed TDCJ facility to the Texas Youth Commission during fiscal year 1997. The last projection assumed the transfer of two TDCJ facilities to TYC during fiscal year 1996-1997; this projection assumes the transfer of three facilities during this period. Finally, the revision projects a lower percentage of State jail felons receiving "up-front" time in county jails. This preliminary projection shows that the State will have a duty-to- accept population of 1,247 starting in May 1997. This compares to a duty-to-accept population of 864, starting in August 1996 under the last projection. The State duty-to-accept population is the number of State inmates in county jails awaiting transfer to prison for more than 45 days and for which the State is legally liable under statutory requirements. The State duty-to-accept population will increase to 6,065 by December 1997 and be totally absorbed by the State by March 1998, as new State capacity becomes operational. The State duty-to-accept population is projected to reach 9,891 by August 2000.