Currently, Brazil is widely regarded as but one of the peripheral states on the edge of an industry dominated by Colombian criminal entrepreneurs and Peruvian and Bolivian coca growers; however, there are several reasons for paying more attention to Brazil than it has so far been given. Increasingly, the Colombian drug cartels are moving their operations into other countries as a way of circumventing law enforcement operations in Colombia. Should this process continue and intensify, then it is possible that Brazil will become a Colombian drug trafficking colony or satellite. There are three scenarios for the further growth of the drug industry in Brazil: Colombian domination of drug trafficking in Brazil, a partnership between emerging Brazilian organized crime groups and similar groups in Colombia (a drug trafficking joint venture), and the emergence of Brazilian drug cartels as independent and powerful actors. The third scenario appears most likely, given Brazil's resources and the mix of opportunities, incentives, and pressures. The risks posed by the state to indigenous drug trafficking organizations are minimal, and the ethnic linkages and trade patterns provide major resources that are ripe for exploitation. The main difference between Brazil and Colombia is likely to be the emergence in Brazil of several powerful regional drug cartels that cooperate among themselves as necessary but do not develop the centralized cartel structures of a Cali or Medellin. Brazil is likely to emerge out of the shadow of its neighbors and become a drug trafficking superpower. Only if this possibility is challenged by the United States, Western Europe, and bodies such as the United Nations Drug Control Program will there be even a small chance of preventing this from happening. 75 notes