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Predicting Reoffending for Discretionary Conditional Release

NCJ Number
163160
Author(s)
J B Copas; P Marshall; R Tarling
Date Published
1996
Length
54 pages
Annotation
The characteristics of more than 1,200 offenders released from prisons in Great Britain in 1987 were analyzed to develop a new instrument, the Risk of Reconviction (ROR), for use by the parole board in predicting the statistical risk of recidivism in an individual offender.
Abstract
The instrument was developed to replace an earlier instrument, the Reconviction Prediction Score, which became unsuitable under changes enacted in the 1991 Criminal Justice Act. This law replaced parole with discretionary conditional release, which was restricted to offenders serving 4 years or more. The new instrument was designed to predict the likelihood of further offending, particularly the likelihood of committing a serious offense. The research that developed the new instrument used data on offenders' background characteristics and criminal careers since 1987. The statistical analysis revealed six characteristics that could be used to estimate the recidivism risk: (1) age at conviction, (2) number of youth custody sentences, (3) number of adult custodial sentences, (4) number of previous convictions, (5) type of offense committed, and (6) offender sex. The ROR uses this information to construct two risk scores, one for serious reoffending and one for any reoffending. These estimates form part of a set of information available to the parole board when making decisions about individual cases. Figures, tables, appended tables, list of other Home Office publications, and 8 references