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Drug War and the Homicide Rate: A Direct Correlation?

NCJ Number
164360
Journal
Cato Journal Volume: 14 Issue: 3 Dated: (Winter 1995) Pages: 509-517
Author(s)
H J Brumm; D O Cloninger
Date Published
1995
Length
9 pages
Annotation
Using cost estimates for the homicide rate in a number of cities, this study tests the hypothesis that the war on illicit drugs has diverted police resources from other law enforcement activities, resulting in a higher rate of violent crimes than would otherwise have been the case.
Abstract
The data used to estimate the model are from 59 cities in 32 States and reflect 1985 experience. The model's variables, which are expressed as natural logarithms, consist of two that are endogenous and five that are exogenous. The former are the homicide offense rate and the homicide arrest rate; the latter are the percentage of the population that is nonwhite, the number of police per violent offense, the number of residents per square mile, the median value of owner-occupied housing, and the number of drug arrests as a percentage of total arrests; the latter variable is a proxy for the war on drugs. The two hypotheses of greatest interest are that an increase in drug arrests relative to total arrests will reduce the homicide arrest rate and that the latter reduction will lead to an increase in the homicide offense rate. The data analyses support these hypotheses, leading the authors to conclude that if these results are even approximately correct, then the current drug-control policy is substantially more expensive than indicated by the observed out- of-pocket drug-control expenditures offered by the criminal justice system. 3 tables and 23 references

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