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EMCDDA Project: Study of Options to Develop Dynamic Models of Drug Use and Related Problems Using Epidemiological Data

NCJ Number
171832
Author(s)
C Godfrey; S Parrott; M Sutton; V Waby; P Young
Date Published
1997
Length
249 pages
Annotation
Modeling techniques are a means of synthesizing data and exploring the links between various factors that influence levels of drug use and consequences; the primary aim of this project was to explore the feasibility of constructing such models for application in Europe, particularly to aid the work of the European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction (EMCDDA).
Abstract
The project focused on the types of models currently being used in these areas, other types of models that could be applied to modeling drug use and problems, the policy issues that could be addressed by various types of models, and the various options available for model building. The findings of the project are in two areas: discussion on how models linked together and how they could be categorized as well as details of specific techniques from the reviews. Geographical information systems were viewed by the group of experts as being capable of meeting many of the criteria considered useful for model building. Modeling hepatitis C virus and hepatitis B virus was viewed as a project that could be undertaken by adapting existing methodology developed for models of HIV/AIDS. Modeling the demand for treatment was viewed as a small and feasible research project that could lead to results of interest to national authorities. Other project recommendations pertain to individual behavioral models of the initiation of drug use; models of drug use constructed with population-level data on prices, purity, and drug-problem indicators; and the cost consequences of drug use. Appended summary reports of the first and second expert meetings, review papers, and a listing of the names and addresses of the Expert Group

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