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Actuarial Assessment of Risk for Violence: Predictive Validity of the VRAG and the Historical Part of the HCR-20

NCJ Number
180669
Journal
Criminal Justice and Behavior Volume: 27 Issue: 1 Dated: February 2000 Pages: 97-114
Author(s)
Martin Grann; Henrik Belfrage; Anders Tengstrom
Editor(s)
Curt R. Bartol
Date Published
2000
Length
18 pages
Annotation
Research was conducted to explore the predictive validity of two actuarial risk assessment instruments among mentally disordered offenders in Sweden: the historical part (H-10) of a historical, clinical, and risk management factors instrument and the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG).
Abstract
Actuarial scores were obtained retrospectively in two populations, a group of violent offenders with personality disorders and a group of violent offenders diagnosed with schizophrenia. The predictive accuracy of the instruments was evaluated with receiver operating characteristic analysis using a violent reconviction within 2 years from release or discharge as the criterion variable. The research found both the H-10 and the VRAG fared better in the group of personality disordered offenders than in the group of offenders with schizophrenia, and the H-10 fared better than the VRAG in both offender groups. In addition, the research found historical data maintain a robust predictive validity in a population of personality disordered offenders, whereas clinical and risk management factors may be of even greater importance in offender populations in which major mental disorders are prevalent. 62 references, 5 notes, and 2 figures