Factor analysis of 20 social behavior and peer relationship variables that had been found significantly related to a summary index measure of substance abuse yielded two factors that neatly separated risk factors from protective factors. Cross-sectional analysis showed social behavior and peer relationship risk variables to be more strongly related to the degree of substance abuse than family problem risk variables, accounting for 36 percent of the variance compared to 12 percent of the variance in the degree of substance abuse. In the analysis for predicting the degree of substance abuse 1 year later in which family problem risk variables were entered as controls, the fact that the subject's father had a substance abuse problem accounted for 6.2 percent of the variance in the subject's degree of substance abuse. Further, the factor score for deviant and delinquent social behavior and peer relationships did not account for any additional variance in the later degree of substance abuse. On the other hand, the factor score for conforming socially acceptable behavior still accounted for 8.1 percent of the additional variance in later substance abuse, after the initial 6.2 percent of variance had been accounted for by the fact that the father had a drug problem. Thus, the degree of protective factors (conforming social behavior and conventional bonding) were more powerful than degree of social behavior risk factors in predicting which court-adjudicated male adolescents will improve more with treatment and which will not develop a more serious substance abuse problem during a 1-year period. 16 references and 8 tables