The model incorporates components of Green and Allen's (1981-82) "Synthesized Societal Response Model," with the added variable of unemployment. The tested model contains the following variables: severity of punishment (t) and (t-1); certainty of punishment (t-1); crime rate (t-1); social complexity (t-1); normative diversity (t-1); and unemployment (t-1). Normative diversity was measured by the annual number of immigrants entering the Netherlands. The use of the prison sentence was the focus of sentencing severity. The data suggest that fluctuations in severity of punishment in the previous year, certainty of punishment, crime rates, normative diversity, and unemployment are related to fluctuations in sentence severity in the Netherlands. The one finding contrary to predictions has to do with the variable of social complexity. The data indicate that sentence severity increased as Dutch society became more urbanized, holding the other variables constant. 3 tables, 19 notes, and a 66-item bibliography