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Deterrence and the Base Rate Fallacy: An Examination of Perceived Certainty

NCJ Number
187424
Journal
Justice Quarterly Volume: 18 Issue: 1 Dated: March 2001 Pages: 63-86
Author(s)
Matthew C. Scheider
Date Published
March 2001
Length
24 pages
Annotation
This study tests the determinist theory assumption of a strong positive relationship between the objective properties of punishment certainty and individuals' perceptions of those properties.
Abstract
The study involved the experimental manipulation of information about objective certainty provided to a sample of university students. Individuals used such information moderately in making their own estimates of certainty, but only for some offenses. There was little evidence to support a "base rate fallacy." Subjects generally did not ignore objective information in favor of subjective information when estimating personal certainty. Tests of the interactions between individual characteristics and information provided on objective certainty produced few significant results. The article suggests the need for further research to explore the tenability of the link between objective certainty information and individuals' perceptions. If perceived certainty affects criminal behaviors, while objective facts exert only a moderate effect on perceptions, it is important to discover precisely how perceptions of certainty are formed. Notes, tables, references

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