| NCJ Number: |
187885  |
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| Title: |
Relative Validity of Actuarial--and Consensus-Based Risk Assessment Systems |
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| Author(s): |
Christopher Baird; Dennis Wagner Ph.D. |
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| Date Published: |
2000 |
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| Annotation: |
This article considers the relative validity of actuarial- and consensus-based risk assessment systems. |
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| Abstract: |
In consensus-based systems, workers assess specific client characteristics identified by the consensus judgment of experts and then exercise their own clinical judgment about the risk of future abuse or neglect. Actuarial systems are based on an empirical study of child protection services cases and future abuse/neglect outcomes. Items/factors having a strong association with future abuse/neglect are used to construct an actuarial instrument that workers score to identify low, medium, or high risk families. This article covers the second phase of a 3-year study to determine the relative reliability and validity of three approaches to risk assessment in child protective services. The study compared the reliability and validity of two consensus models and one actuarial model. This article summarizes results of the validity study. The primary measure of validity was the ability of each system to classify cases into risk groups with significantly different rates of subsequent maltreatment reported. The article concludes that actuarial-based systems are more accurate than consensus-based or expert systems and, therefore, have the potential to improve child protection services decision making. Bibliography, tables, notes |
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| Main Term(s): |
Juveniles |
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| Index Term(s): |
Child abuse; Child protection services; Dangerousness; Decisionmaking; Evaluation measures; Instrument validation; Models; Studies; Testing and measurement |
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| Grant Number: |
90-CA-1550 |
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| Sponsoring Agency: |
Children's Research Ctr
Madison, WI 53719
National Ctr on Child Abuse and Neglect
McLean, VA 22102 |
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| Sale Source: |
Children's Research Ctr
National Council on Crime and Delinquency
426 S. Yellowstone Drive, Suite 250
Madison, WI 53719
United States of America
National Ctr on Child Abuse and Neglect
8201 Greensboro Drive
Suite 600
McLean, VA 22102
United States of America |
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| Page Count: |
41 |
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| Format: |
Document |
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| Type: |
Program/Project Description |
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| Language: |
English |
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| Country: |
United States of America |
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To cite this abstract, use the following link:
http://www.ncjrs.gov/App/publications/abstract.aspx?ID=187885 |
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